30 Years of Experience of the Two-Child Policy in Yicheng, China

Yu Qin, Fei Wang

More and more countries have been adopting population policies to increase birth rates, in order to deal with the growing challenges of aging (United Nations 2013). Following the recent trend, China, the most populous country in the world, ended its 35-year-long one-child policy and started to allow two children for each married couple from January 1, 2016. It is still too early to evaluate the new two-child policy directly. However, something may be learnt from what has happened in Yicheng in the past 30 years. Yicheng is a typical agricultural county in Shanxi province with a population that is over 80% rural (Figure 1). It first adopted the two-child policy in 1985, aiming to observe how fast birth rates would increase if fertility restrictions were ...

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

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دوشنبه ، 9 بهمن 1396 ، 13:46

Comparative Study of the Determinants of Contraceptive Use in Urban and Rural Areas of Ilam District

Fereshteh Norouzi, Abbas Askari Nodoushan, Hatam HosseiniDr. Hatam Hosseini


Parallel to reduction in women’s childbearing desires and ideals, demand for using contraceptive methods increase. This paper aims to study of the prevalence of contraceptive use and its determinants among currently married women aged 15-49 living in urban and rural areas of Ilam district. Data are taken from a survey conducted on a sample of over 724 households in July 2014. The sampling method is a combination of multi-stage cluster sampling, random sampling and systematic random sampling methods. Results show that contraceptive use is widespread among women in rural and urban area. 81.8 percent of women in both rural and urban area use a contraceptive method. The use of modern contraceptive methods are more common among urban women than their counterparts in rural area (75.7 percent vs 70.7 percent). Multivariate analysis show that the number of children surviving and costs of contraception (18.8 percent), and the ideal number of children, the number of children surviving, and the costs of contraception (36.7 percent) are the main determinants of women’s risk of contraceptive use in urban and rural area respectively. According to findings it is reasonable to conclude that regarding widespread use of contraceptives and decreasing women’s childbearing desires and ideals, increasing costs of access to contraceptives and sociocultural costs of contraceptive use may lead to unintended pregnancies, induced abortion and maternal health threats. Journal of Woman and Family Studies, 5(2), DOI: 10.22051/jwfs.2017.5251.

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دوشنبه ، 30 بهمن 1396 ، 07:30

سمینار «ابرچالش‌های اقتصاد ایران و الزامات جمعیّتی و سیاستی آن» برگزار می‌شود

انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، پنجم اسفند 1396

بر اساس اعلام دبیرخانه‌ی انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، سمینار علمی- تخصّصی با همکاری دانشکده‌ی علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه تهران، مؤسّسه‌ی مطالعات و مدیریّت جامع و تخصّصی جمعیّت کشور روز شنبه پنجم اسفند ماه 1396 از ساعت 15 تا 17 در تالار گفتگو دانشکده‌ی علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه تهران با حضور اعضاء و علاقه‌مندان جمعیّت‌شناسی و اقتصاد برگزار مي‌شود. سخنران این نشست دكتر مسعود نیلی، اقتصاددان و رئیس مؤسّسه‌ی عالی آموزش و پژوهش مدیریّت و برنامه‌ریزی است. از همه‌ی اعضای انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران و سایر علاقه‌مندان به موضوع این سمینار برای شرکت در این نشست دعوت به عمل آمده است. لازم به یادآوری است که مجمع عمومی سالانه‌ی انجمن نیز در حاشیه‌ی سمینار برگزار خواهد شد.

مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 25 دی 1396 ، 05:33

Emerging Techniques in Applied Demography

Hoque, M. Nazrul, Potter, Lloyd BEmerging Techniques in Applied Demography

By bringing together top-notch demographers, sociologists, economists, statisticians and public health specialists from Asia, Africa, Europe, and North America to examine a wide variety of public and private issues in applied demography, this book spans a wide range of topics. It evaluates population estimates and projections against actual census counts and suggests further improvement of estimates and projection techniques and evaluation procedures; new techniques are proposed for estimating families and households and particular attention is paid to the much-discussed topic of access to health care. Coverage extends to factors influencing health status and elder abuse, child bearing and labor market analysis and the effects of education on labor market outcomes of native white American and immigrant European populations. Methodologically rigorous and pragmatically useful, Emerging Techniques in Applied Demography also examines a wide variety of public and private issues under the field of applied demography. It provides a broad overview of research topics and also reflects substantial development in the field of applied demography. It also bridges the gap between theory and research by providing several examples of work of distinguished applied demographic. Springer 2015.

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يكشنبه ، 22 بهمن 1396 ، 07:38

World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision

United Nations Population DivisionWorld Population Prospects

People and therefore populations are at the centre of sustainable development and will be influential in the realization of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. ٌWorld Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision released recently. The 2017 Revision provides a comprehensive set of demographic data and indicators to assess population trends at the global, regional and national levels and to calculate many other key indicators commonly used by the United Nations system. According to the results of the 2017 Revision, the world’s population numbered nearly 7.6 billion as of mid-2017, implying that the world has added approximately one billion inhabitants over the last twelve years. Sixty per cent of the world’s people live in Asia (4.5 billion), 17 per cent in Africa (1.3 billion), 10 per cent in Europe (742 million), 9 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean (646 million), and the remaining 6 per cent in Northern America (361 million) and Oceania (41 million). China (1.4 billion) and India (1.3 billion) remain the two most populous countries of the world, comprising 19 and 18 per cent of the global total, respectively.

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روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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