How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.”

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

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Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
پنجشنبه ، 5 مرداد 1396 ، 01:14

The World’s Next 4 Billion People Will Differ from the Previous 4 Billion

Prof. David LamDavid Lam

When the world population reached 7 billion in 2011, it marked the amazing addition of 4 billion people in just over 50 years, the world having attained the 3 billion milestone in 1960. The United Nations projects that world population will top 11 billion by 2100, roughly the addition of another 4 billion people (United Nations Population Division, 2015). By 2100 world population growth will probably be near an end.  In considering whether the world can absorb another 4 billion people, it is interesting to look back at the past and note some important differences between the 4 billion that will be added between 2011 and 2100 and the 4 billion added between 1960 and 2011. The next 4 billion will be old rather than young, will be in Africa rather than Asia, and will take almost a century to arrive rather than 50 years. It will raise some new challenges, although the experience of the last 50 years gives room for optimism about the world’s ability to support it.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
سه شنبه ، 28 شهریور 1396 ، 04:37

Fertility in the Time of Economic CrisisN.IUSSP

Ludovica Comolli

When uncertain about the stability of their present or future earnings or jobs, individuals postpone life-changing decisions. Scientific research confirms conventional wisdom and shows that the Great Recession that started in 2008 had a paralyzing effect on childbearing in most western economies. As illustrated in Figure 1, after a period of growing fertility at the beginning of the 21st century, the US and most countries in Europe registered a sudden fertility decline. Researchers tend to agree that the drop is largely due to the global economic downturn that violently hit those same countries (Sobotka et al. 2011, Pison 2011, Goldstein et al. 2013, Schneider 2015).

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
سه شنبه ، 7 شهریور 1396 ، 04:55

Family Planning and Women's Educational Advancement in Tehran, Iran

Amir ErfaniDr. Amir Erfani

Abstract

This study examines the impact of contraceptive use on women’s educational advancement as an indicator of female empowerment, using retrospective data from the 2009 Tehran Fertility Survey. The results show that 15 per cent of married women continued their education after marriage. Also, women using modern contraceptives before a first birth were more likely to experience a 1–2-year increase in education level after marriage, controlling for other factors. Recent cohorts were more likely to continue their education after marriage, especially those who used modern vs. traditional contraceptives. The findings clearly indicate that family planning use after marriage enables women to advance their education by freeing them from reproductive activities. Canadian Studies in Population 42, 1-2 (2015): 35-52. Click here to get the Full Text of the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
پنجشنبه ، 23 شهریور 1396 ، 18:55

Persistent High Fertility in Rural AfricaMichel Garenne

Michel Garenne

The fertility transition, defined as a change from high and natural fertility (in a range of five to nine children per woman) to low and controlled fertility (down to two children per woman or less) started in France in the 18th century, and spread during the 19th century to other European populations, including expatriate populations of North America, Australia, New-Zealand, and South Africa. It arose through the strong desire of couples (husband and wife) to limit their family size, and occurred without any state intervention, often despite reluctance from Christian churches, and by using so-called traditional methods of contraception (withdrawal, spouse separation, etc.). This change occurred in the early phases of economic development and social change, although without any clear correlation with these complex processes (Coale and Watkins 1986; Knodel and van de Walle 1979).

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روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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