How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.” In early March, incentives for parents to have more children ...

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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Japan is not the only country worrying about population decline–get used to a two-speed world

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

The past century has been one of unprecedented global population growth. While the number of people in the world doubled from 0.8 to 1.6 billion between 1750 and 1900, the 20th century saw a near quadrupling to 6.1 billion. In the past 15 years alone, more than 1.2 billion have been added to that. Worries about “overpopulation” can be seen everywhere from the UK to Sub-Saharan Africa. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier. A persistently low birth rate is the main reason. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier.

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Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 15 خرداد 1396 ، 05:52

Family Planning and Women’s Educational Advancement in Tehran, Iran

Dr. Amir ErfaniAmir Erfani

Abstract

This study examines the impact of contraceptive use on women’s educational advancement as an indicator of female empowerment, using retrospective data from the 2009 Tehran Fertility Survey. The results show that 15 per cent of married women continued their education after marriage. Also, women using modern contraceptives before a first birth were more likely to experience a 1–2-year increase in education level after marriage, controlling for other factors. Recent cohorts were more likely to continue their education after marriage, especially those who used modern vs. traditional contraceptives. The findings clearly indicate that family planning use after marriage enables women to advance their education by freeing them from reproductive activities. Canadian Studies in Population (2015), 42(1-2): 35-52. Click here to get the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
يكشنبه ، 14 خرداد 1396 ، 06:38

Policy Implications of Age-Structural Changes
Sri Moertiningsih Adioetomo, Gervais Beninguisse, Socorro Gultiano, Yan Hao, Kourtoum Nacro, Ian PoolSri Moertiningsih Adioetomo

Abstract
This chapter synthesises the rest of the book. It identifies an emerging trend from growth to structural shifts as a demographic driver. It defines one of these, age-structural transitions (ASTs), and shows their policy implications, in particular for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). It shows how, appropriately exploited, the ASTs could provide a “Window of Opportunity” for the implementation of the MDGs. Finally, it links the ASTs to other demographic and social transitional models. In Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris, 2006, PP. 361-376.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 5 تیر 1396 ، 01:26

Prolonged Birth Intervals in Hamedan, Iran: Variations and Determinants

Dr. Amir ErfaniAmir Erfani; Marzieh Nojomi; Hatam Hosseini

Abstract

The enduring sub-replacement level of fertility in Iran is the result of changing timing of births. Using data from the 2015 Hamedan Survey of Fertility, conducted in a representative sample of 3000 married women aged 15–49, this study examined variations in median lengths of birth intervals employing cumulative survival functions, and investigated the determinants of birth interval lengths using regression hazard models. The results showed that the median first, second and third birth intervals, estimated at 28, 74 and 136 months respectively, doubled between 1995 and 2015. The multivariate analysis results indicated the strong impact of contraceptive use and higher education on lengthening birth intervals, with greater effects on the timing of second and third births. The relative risks of second and third births were higher among rural migrants, unemployed women and those with shorter periods of breast-feeding and the death of a preceding birth. Only timing of the third birth was influenced by son preference. The implications of the results for low fertility and maternal and child health in Iran are discussed. Journal of Biosocial Science (2017): 1-15, Doi: 1017/S0021932017000232. Click here to get the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 22 خرداد 1396 ، 04:20

Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers, and Economic Growth: Asia in a Global Context

Ronald LeeRonald Lee, Andrew Mason

Abstract

Countries in Asia are at different points in the demographic transition. East Asian countries started earlier and are farther along, particularly Japan. The countries of South and Southeast Asia started later and are at a middle stage (Mason, Lee, and Lee, 2010). The changes in population growth rates and sizes over the transition are certainly important, but here we focus particularly on the changes in population age distributions and do not consider changes in the scale of the population. Populations passing through the transition start with high proportions of children and low proportions of elderly and eventually move to the reverse situation: relatively few children and many elderly. In the earliest part of the transition, the proportions of children often increase because of declining infant and child mortality. In the middle of the transition, while fertility is declining, the proportions of the population in the working ages rise over a half century or so and total dependency ratios fall. The resulting boost to per capita income growth is an important component of the “demographic dividend.” However, as fertility bottoms out and the growth of the working age populations slows, the population ages as the ratio of elderly to working age rises. In the end, the proportion of the population in the working ages may be close to its level before the transition began—but with the elderly traded for dependent children.

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تازه‌های کتاب

Population Dynamics and Projection Methods: This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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