How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.”

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

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Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
پنجشنبه ، 5 مرداد 1396 ، 01:14

The World’s Next 4 Billion People Will Differ from the Previous 4 Billion

Prof. David LamDavid Lam

When the world population reached 7 billion in 2011, it marked the amazing addition of 4 billion people in just over 50 years, the world having attained the 3 billion milestone in 1960. The United Nations projects that world population will top 11 billion by 2100, roughly the addition of another 4 billion people (United Nations Population Division, 2015). By 2100 world population growth will probably be near an end.  In considering whether the world can absorb another 4 billion people, it is interesting to look back at the past and note some important differences between the 4 billion that will be added between 2011 and 2100 and the 4 billion added between 1960 and 2011. The next 4 billion will be old rather than young, will be in Africa rather than Asia, and will take almost a century to arrive rather than 50 years. It will raise some new challenges, although the experience of the last 50 years gives room for optimism about the world’s ability to support it.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
سه شنبه ، 31 مرداد 1396 ، 03:57

کتاب «روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی» منتشر شد

نویسندگان: فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین، دیوید ا. سوانسون

ترجمه: دکتر حاتم حسینی، میلاد بگیDr. Hatam Hosseini

بررسی جمعیّت‌­ها مربوط به بیش‌تر فعّالیت‌های انسان است. به‌عنوان یک رشته، جمعیّت‌شناسی شبیه آمار است زیرا روش‌های آن در بسیاری دیگر از رشته‌های دانشگاهی استفاده می‌شود. در مورد جمعیّت‌شناسی این رشته­‌ها عبارتند از بررسی‌های آماری، مدیریّت کسب و کار، عدالت کیفری، جغرافیا، تاریخ، بررسی‎های حقوقی، بازاریابی، بررسی‌های سازمانی، برنامه‌ریزی، پیش‎بینی، علوم سیاسی، سیاست‌های عمومی و مدیریّت، مراقبت‌های بهداشتی و آموزش و پرورش، جامعه‌شناسی و بررسی‌های شهری. روش‌های جمعیّت‌شناختی در سطح وسیعی توسّط افرادی که در این رشته­‌ها فعّالیت دارند استفاده می‌شود. با توجّه به مخاطبان گسترده و برخی تحوّلات اخیر در روش­‌های جمعیّت‌شناختی، محتویات این کتاب با استفاده از روش‌های موجود اخیراً توسعه‌یافته، شکاف اساسی در کاربرد روش‌های جمعیّت‌شناختی را پُر می‌کند. این کتاب جنبه‌های بسیاری از صور جمعیّت‌شناختی، روش‌های مرتبط و کاربرد آنها را در بر می‌گیرد. برخی از سنجه­‌های آماری مربوط به بررسی جمعیّت‌شناسی، مفاهیم و تکنیک‌های مرتبط با آنها را معرّفی می‌کند. کتاب به مدل­‌های جمعیّتی پایه و شرح و بسط مفاهیم و جریان­‌های جمعیّتی می­‌پردازد. علاوه بر این، تحلیل پدیده­‌های جمعیّتی به‌صورت مقطعی و  تحلیل­‌های طولی/گروه هم‌دوره را در بر می­‌گیرد.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
شنبه ، 24 تیر 1396 ، 07:59

Understanding Population Projections: Assumptions Behind the Numbers

Toshiko Kaneda, Donna Clifton, Jason Bremner

Abstract

Policymakers and program planners rely on population projections to assess future demand for resources such as food, water, and energy, as well as services such as health and education. Projections alert policymakers and planners to major trends that may affect social and economic development and help them craft appropriate policies and programs. Many governments periodically make population projections for their own countries. In addition, organizations like the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) and the U.S. Census Bureau regularly prepare population projections for the world, regions, and individual countries. To develop these projections, demographers must make assumptions about future trends related to fertility, mortality, and migration. These assumptions, though based on research and expert opinions, are not certain. Population projections represent the future size of a population and the age and sex distribution if the assumptions used hold true. Many users of projections, however, may not be aware of exactly how they are made and do not consider the assumptions and limitations that underlie them. It is essential that users have a basic understanding of these assumptions and their plausibility before using them. Uncertainty in projections can result from a variety of sources, such as in the estimate of a current population size that serves as the "starting" population for projections. Time also increases uncertainty: Projections over longer periods are less certain than short-term projections because of the compounding effects of inaccuracies in assumptions over time. This brief aims to improve understanding of population projections by highlighting some of the key assumptions on which they are based. The brief examines and discusses the population projections produced by UNPD (hereafter referred to as UN projections) as an example. For more information and get this brief click here.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
چهارشنبه ، 25 مرداد 1396 ، 04:15

Childlessness and Fertility by Couples' Educational Gender (in)quality in Austria, Bulgaria, and France

Beata OsiewalskaBeata Osiewalska

Abstract

In modern, highly developed countries the association between education and fertility seems to be equivocal: A negative influence of education mainly applies to women, while among men the correlation is often positive or negligible. Although the gender differences have been examined in depth, couples’ procreative behaviour treated as the result of a conflict between male and female characteristics is still understudied. This study aims to investigate couples’ reproductive behaviour among contemporary European populations with regard to (in)equality between partners’ educational levels and the joint educational resources of a couple. Various measures of educational endogamy are considered. The hurdle zero-truncated Poisson model within the Bayesian framework is applied. The data comes from the first wave of the Generations and Gender Survey for Austria, Bulgaria, and France. Homogamous low-educated partners have, on average, the highest fertility. The highly educated postpone childbearing and have a smaller number of children in all countries except France, where their completed fertility does not differ from that of other unions. The effect of hypergamy is insignificant and is thus similar to homogamy in medium education. Hypogamy negatively influences fertility in Bulgaria and Austria, while in France the effect is insignificant. The small variation in fertility due to couple-level education observed in France indicates that proper institutional support for families might help couples overcome possible obstacles and enhance fertility for all educational profiles. This study provides a perspective on the relationship between reproductive behaviour and educational pairing in varying country-specific contexts. It reaches key conclusions on contemporary fertility regarding both childlessness and parenthood and their association with couples’ different educational profiles. Demographic Research, 2017, 37(12): 325-362. Click here to get the paper.

 
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روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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