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شنبه ، 24 تیر 1396 ، 07:59

Understanding Population Projections: Assumptions Behind the Numbers

Toshiko Kaneda, Donna Clifton, Jason Bremner

Abstract

Policymakers and program planners rely on population projections to assess future demand for resources such as food, water, and energy, as well as services such as health and education. Projections alert policymakers and planners to major trends that may affect social and economic development and help them craft appropriate policies and programs. Many governments periodically make population projections for their own countries. In addition, organizations like the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) and the U.S. Census Bureau regularly prepare population projections for the world, regions, and individual countries. To develop these projections, demographers must make assumptions about future trends related to fertility, mortality, and migration. These assumptions, though based on research and expert opinions, are not certain. Population projections represent the future size of a population and the age and sex distribution if the assumptions used hold true. Many users of projections, however, may not be aware of exactly how they are made and do not consider the assumptions and limitations that underlie them. It is essential that users have a basic understanding of these assumptions and their plausibility before using them. Uncertainty in projections can result from a variety of sources, such as in the estimate of a current population size that serves as the "starting" population for projections. Time also increases uncertainty: Projections over longer periods are less certain than short-term projections because of the compounding effects of inaccuracies in assumptions over time. This brief aims to improve understanding of population projections by highlighting some of the key assumptions on which they are based. The brief examines and discusses the population projections produced by UNPD (hereafter referred to as UN projections) as an example. For more information and get this brief click here.

آخرین بروز رسانی مطلب در سه شنبه ، 7 شهریور 1396 ، 05:16
 

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روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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