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دوشنبه ، 22 خرداد 1396 ، 04:20

Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers, and Economic Growth: Asia in a Global Context

Ronald LeeRonald Lee, Andrew Mason

Abstract

Countries in Asia are at different points in the demographic transition. East Asian countries started earlier and are farther along, particularly Japan. The countries of South and Southeast Asia started later and are at a middle stage (Mason, Lee, and Lee, 2010). The changes in population growth rates and sizes over the transition are certainly important, but here we focus particularly on the changes in population age distributions and do not consider changes in the scale of the population. Populations passing through the transition start with high proportions of children and low proportions of elderly and eventually move to the reverse situation: relatively few children and many elderly. In the earliest part of the transition, the proportions of children often increase because of declining infant and child mortality. In the middle of the transition, while fertility is declining, the proportions of the population in the working ages rise over a half century or so and total dependency ratios fall. The resulting boost to per capita income growth is an important component of the “demographic dividend.” However, as fertility bottoms out and the growth of the working age populations slows, the population ages as the ratio of elderly to working age rises. In the end, the proportion of the population in the working ages may be close to its level before the transition began—but with the elderly traded for dependent children.

Children and the elderly are similar from an economic perspective, because both groups have labor income that is small relative to their consumption. They must rely on sources other than their labor to provide for their material needs. However, children rely almost exclusively on public and private transfers to provide for their net consumption needs while the elderly, in addition to these sources, may also rely on accumulated assets to fund their consumption. These assets have an important bearing on economic performance because they are a source of non-labor income and, in addition, if invested in the domestic economy, they raise its labor productivity. To the extent that the elderly rely on assets to fund their old age consumption, the burden on workers (and taxpayers) is reduced, and actual and anticipated population aging and longer life can accelerate the accumulation of capital and boost economic growth. To summarize, population aging has a negative effect on per capita consumption through increased dependency and may also have a positive effect through increased capital accumulation.

We will also suggest that lower fertility, the most important source of population aging, is associated with higher human capital investments per child. Thus, over the demographic transition, the quality and productivity of workers rise at the same time that their numbers fall. This change and the effects of population aging on physical capital provide two powerful mechanisms for maintaining or increasing standards of living despite the deterioration in the support ratio.

Estimates in this chapter are based on National Transfer Accounts (NTA), an international project that draws on the work of research teams in 36 countries on six continents to estimate age profiles of key economic flows across age (see http://www.ntaccounts.org). We will present data for a subset of 23 countries, listed in Table 4-1, along with the dates to which the NTA estimates refer.

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تازه‌های کتاب

Population Dynamics and Projection Methods: This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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