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دوشنبه ، 15 خرداد 1396 ، 05:29

Preparing for Population Aging in Asia: Strengthening the Infrastructure for Science and Policy

James P. SmithJames P. Smith

Abstract

Throughout most of the developed and developing world, one of the most daunting issues deals with the challenges raised by population aging. Rapid increases in life expectancy, especially at older ages, alongside unprecedented declines in fertility will soon lead throughout North America, Europe, and Asia to never before seen rates of population aging. The “problem” of population aging is easy to state—to provide income and health security at older ages and to do so at affordable budgets. All rapidly aging countries face similar risks, but Asian countries have some advantages and disadvantages. The disadvantages are that compared to Europe and North America, Asian countries are now aging more rapidly at lower incomes with weak non-familial income and health security systems in place. The big advantage is that it is much easier to change public systems in Asia than in Europe and America where the vested interest around the status quo has proven to be a major impediment to any policy adjustment.

Until recently, the one shared disadvantage throughout America, Europe, and Asia is that a scientific data infrastructure was not available that would inform simultaneously in one common platform about the status of key life domains at older ages—work, economic resources, health status and health care, the role of the family, and cognition. Without that type of data infrastructure, we would not be able to monitor the key simultaneous transitions in these domains as people age and, even more importantly, how the various life domains mutually influence each other. The implication is that we would be unable to anticipate unforeseen consequences of policies centered on one domain in isolation on major life outcomes in the other domains. The absence of a common data infrastructure platform also implies that countries would not learn from the successes and failures of other countries in their attempts to deal with population aging.

Fortunately, this situation is rapidly changing for the better. Starting in the United States with the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a data infrastructure platform has emerged that has spread throughout Europe and Asia centered on issues of population aging. In this chapter, I describe the origins and world-wide spread of this data infrastructure, its common elements, and its potential to inform policy and enhance the science. This chapter is organized into three sections. The next section describes the primary demographic trends driving aging in several Asian countries over the next century. Section 2 summarizes the new aging data sets that are based on the U.S. HRS, with discussion on the European and Asian comparable surveys that have emerged to provide a scientific and policy infrastructure to study population aging around the world. Section 3 provides illustrations of the way these surveys can be used to study population aging. The final section also highlights the chapter’s main conclusions. In Aging in Asia: Findings from New and Emerging Data Initiatives (2012), Edited by: James P. Smith and Malay Majmundar, ISBN: 978-0-309-25406-9, PP. 17-35.

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روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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