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شنبه ، 23 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 10:18

Age-Structural Transition in Brazil: Demographic Bonuses and Emerging Challenges

Laura Rodriguez Wong, José Alberto M. De Carvalho

Abstract
The paper describes the Brazilian Age-Structural Transition (AST) produced primarily by fertility declines (about 56% in 25 years). Slightly ahead of most of the Latin America countries, Brazil entered a stage in which strong, mostly positive, age-structural effects have been obtained. Some improvements relating to health, nutrition and education among children and youngsters, for example, were achieved in part because of the positive impacts on policy of the AST. Among the working-age population the mature population (aged 25 to 64), that usually has high activity rates and comprises the majority of taxpayers, will increase in relative and absolute terms while the junior segment (aged 15 to 24)–a proxy of those entering for the first time into the labour force–will probably have negative growth rates. Thus, the intraworking-age ratio (ratio of the junior labour force to the mature labour force, an indicator of pressure for new employments) has a downwards trend in Brazil. Different growth rates within the working-age population are therefore a new demographic “window of opportunity”. This bonus, however, can only be exploited if full employment and higher productivity are pursued. As a necessary, although not sufficient, condition to achieve social, economic and intergenerational balances, labour-force skills should be at their highest levels. For this reason, all opportunities to become skilled should be given to the potential workforce. On the other hand, due to the AST, new challenges emerge for Brazilian society.

The population aged 65 or more will expand. If current per capita government transfers are kept constant, the difference between age-related government expenditures and revenues will increase considerably and cause an unbearable increment in the fiscal deficit. Prospectively, any simulation about age-related government expenditures will produce the well-known scenario: that the elderly will demand massive resources, because of social security plans and because it is just at older ages that health care becomes more necessary and costly. The forecast fiscal crises caused by the ageing of the population combined with an unsound Brazilian Social-Security System should be a matter of concern for the Brazilian society. Most of the policy implications identified for developed countries in relation to their ASTs decades ago are similar to those discussed in this paper; what is different, however, is the speed of present changes in several developing countries. It is extremely important in order to take advantage of the demographic bonuses and to prepare the society to face the new challenges to be aware of the short period to define, implement and accomplish plans, whatever they may be. In Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris 2006, PP. 159-199.

آخرین بروز رسانی مطلب در شنبه ، 23 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 10:36
 

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روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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