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دوشنبه ، 8 خرداد 1396 ، 09:09

Age-Structural Transitions: Major Policy Implications for China

Yan HaoYan Hao

Abstract
China is the most populous country in the world. In less than 50 years since 1950, the Chinese population has experienced a process of demographic transition with fertility falling quickly from high to low levels. In between, sizeable bulges and troughs in age structure were left as a result of China’s turbulent course of social and economic development over recent decades. The government-sponsored birth control programmes are believed to have played a special role in pressing down fertility since the mid 1970s. Projections of the age-structural transition show that a “window of opportunity” for China as a whole will arrive in around 2010, when the share of working age population will reach the highest level of 71% and the total dependency ratio will drop to 42%. However, marked differences exist between provinces and between urban and rural areas. Before the dependency ratio starts to pick up again around 2015, China will still have had over 10 years’ time to make full use of this “demographic bonus”. It is a crucial period for China to reach its target of 2020 aiming to quadruple its per capita GDP over that of 2000, and to fulfill its commitment to the Millennium Development Goals. Major policy implications are discussed here relating to labour market and social security programs. In Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris 2006, PP. 289-317.

آخرین بروز رسانی مطلب در دوشنبه ، 8 خرداد 1396 ، 09:24