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جمعه ، 8 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 16:51

Population and Development: The Demographic Transition

Tim DysonTim Dyson

The demographic transition and its related effects of population growth, fertility decline and ageing populations are fraught with problems and controversy. When discussed in relation to the global south and the modern project of development, the questions and answers become more problematic. Population and Development expertly guides the reader through the demographic transition's origins in the Enlightenment and Europe, through to the rest of the world. Whilst the phenomenon continues to cause unsustainable population growth with disastrous economic and environmental implications, the author examines how its processes have underlain previous periods of sustained economic growth; helped to liberate women from the domestic domain; and contributed greatly to the rise of modern democracy. This accessible and expert analysis will enable any student or expert in development studies to understand complex and vital demographic theory. This is a book about the central role of the demographic transition in the creation of the modern world. It argues that you cannot understand the modern process of ‘development’ unless you put the demographic transition centre-stage. The great declines in human mortality and fertility that define the transition, plus the major changes in population size and structure that result from these declines, all have immense implications for the past, present and future of the world.

Because the demographic transition has often been accompanied by economic growth, it has often been assumed that it is largely a consequence of economic growth. Most certainly, however, that is not the view that is taken here. Instead, the transition is seen as something which occurs largely independently of prevailing economic circumstances. The transition’s implications for the economy are probably greater than the economy’s implications for the transition. And, more generally, the transition has played at least as important a role in the overall process of development as has the phenomenon of modern economic growth. For several reasons, the demographic transition provides an excellent framework for studying development. For example, it is a truly global phenomenon–one that has already affected all of humanity to varying degrees. For most countries, the trends in death and birth rates which define the transition can be gauged relatively accurately, and located fairly precisely in time. Crucially, as societies go through the transition they invariably experience several major demographic processes in roughly the following order: mortality decline, population growth, fertility decline, urbanization, population ageing. Furthermore, these overlapping processes are causally related to each other–a fact which explains why they always occur in more or less the same sequence. Thus, mortality decline causes population growth; and fertility decline causes population ageing. It will also be argued that mortality decline is both the underlying cause of fertility decline and the main process behind urbanization.

All of these demographic processes have huge consequences for development. Indeed, they have helped to shape what the concept of development means. A key aim of the book is to examine the interrelated effects of these processes across many aspects of life–for example, in relation to matters of social psychology, family life, gender, education, economy, politics and, briefly, the environment. Of course, other phenomena–such as economic growth and technological change – have also contributed to the modern process of development. Demographic change does not explain everything. It can sometimes be difficult to distinguish the influence of alternative phenomena from that of the transition. The demographic processes examined here are themselves conditioned by other factors. And synergistic interactions–processes of cumulative causation–are often involved as well. Moreover, the context in which the transition occurs is always important in influencing how it unfolds. The origins of the demographic transition lie in the rise of science and the emergence of increasingly secular attitudes in Europe and its offshoot populations during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. And the fact that European populations were really the first to experience the phenomenon explains why it is important to consider their historical experience here. Although other phenomena have played major roles in the modern process of development, this book is focused squarely on the demographic transition–its constituent processes and their principal societal effects. The argument is that once mortality decline is under way, then all of the other demographic processes are virtually certain to occur, eventually. Moreover, other things equal, the same probably applies to the principal societal effects. The fact that the demographic transition has played a fundamental role in the creation of the modern world has been neglected to a remarkable degree. Many of the pieces which I use here to construct the central argument already lie scattered around. Yet rarely, if ever, have they been brought together in a single place. Just why this big story has been so neglected cannot be addressed in much detail here. Part of the explanation, however, lies in the scant knowledge of basic demography that is imparted to people at university–consider, for example, how many social scientists believe that mortality decline is the principal cause of population ageing. Another part of the explanation may lie in the increasingly specialized nature of academic research. Demographers, for example, tend to focus on the individual components of the transition – often fertility. When they do stand back and contemplate the phenomenon as a whole–almost always in relatively short academic papers–they usually devote little or no space to urbanization, let alone anything much beyond.

Another reason why the story has been neglected is that the major demographic processes examined in these pages occur fairly slowly – at least if they are gauged in terms of the length of an average working lifetime. This means that social scientists frequently miss the operation of these processes, and the ways in which they affect other things. The result is that explanations of change in the nature of society are often framed in terms of more visible and immediate considerations. Yet the demographic changes considered here are actually enormous, and they are also fairly rapid if viewed in historical terms. A recurring theme of this book is that these demographic processes affect other aspects of development in remote rather than in proximate ways –and this helps to explain why their influence is often overlooked. And whereas the rationale provided by social scientists to explain certain major changes in society has often been economic, the argument here is that the underlying cause of these changes has often been at least as much demographic. Furthermore, to appreciate the full range of effects that arise from the transition it is necessary to approach the matter from the direction of the transition itself, rather than from the direction of any particular discipline. The book would not have been written without a two-year Research Fellowship awarded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC Award RES-063-27-0159). I am extremely grateful to the ESRC, and its anonymous reviewers, for the time and the intellectual freedom that this fellowship has provided. As noted, the book is concerned with the telling of a big story. Therefore, it is appropriate to acknowledge the influence of many friends and colleagues who, over the years and in different ways, have had a major impact on my thinking. Jack Caldwell, Robert Cassen, Chris Langford, Mike Murphy, Máire Ní Bhrolcháin, Chris Wilson and Tony Wrigley deserve special mention. My views have also been influenced by John Cleland, Ernestina Coast, David Coleman, Monica Das Gupta, Jane Falkingham, Griff Feeney, Andrew Fischer, Sean Fox, Michel Garenne, Eilidh Garrett, Sharon Ghuman, Arjan Gjonka, Simon Gregson, Seamus Grimes, Terry Hull, Arup Maharatna, Karen Mason, Sam Preston, Neil Price, Radhika Ramasubban, Peter Razzell, David Reher, Zeba Sathar, Ken Shadlen, Richard Smith, K. Srinivasan, Simon Szreter, Arland Thornton, Ian Timaeus, Leela Visaria, Ben Wilson, Bob Woods, Peng Xizhe and Basia Zaba, among others. Naturally, in all of these cases the usual disclaimer applies. I am extremely grateful to Mina Moshkeri for drawing the diagrams. While this is not a textbook, its origins lie in a course on Population and Development which I teach at the London School of Economics. And, in this connection, I must record that I have learnt a great deal from teaching the course and interacting with the students.

Some words are required on organization. Chapter 1 briefly introduces the subject. Chapter 2 provides a sketch of the main argument regarding the role of the demographic transition in the creation of the modern world. Chapter 3 reviews past growth of the global population, and the unprecedented demographic diversity that exists in the world today – both of which are unintelligible without knowledge of the transition. This chapter also introduces some basic considerations of population dynamics. Chapter 4 examines the transition itself–the empirical facts, and attendant theoretical considerations. A key argument here is that mortality decline is the remote cause of fertility decline. Chapter 5 discusses urbanization, including urban growth. It considers how these processes arise from the transition. The argument is hardly new, but it is surprisingly little known. By the end of Chapter 5 the major processes of the transition have each been addressed. Therefore the book turns to some of the effects of these changes, although necessarily only in outline form. This is done with respect to the past experience of developed countries. And it is done with respect to variation in development as it exists in the world today. Chapter 6 considers what can broadly be regarded as the social consequences of the transition. And Chapter 7 does the same for the economy and the distribution of political power. Finally, Chapter 8 draws things together, and concludes with some brief remarks on the future. An Appendix contains comments on data and approach. The demographic transition promises many good things that can be experienced by societies that are still fairly poor in narrow economic (i.e. material) terms. Therefore, in general, the story that is told in these pages is a positive one. The story also has its downside, however–in particular, the considerable increase in population scale that the demographic transition often entails. Population growth – past, as well as present – plays a significant role in relation to global warming and the threat of climate change. And, even if that extremely important subject is put on one side, it remains the case that the future of many poor countries with rapidly growing populations will be appreciably better if they can reduce their fertility faster, rather than more slowly. There is no real doubt about that. In that connection, there can be few happier changes – both for individuals and the societies in which they live – than those provided by access to, and the free adoption of, modern methods of contraception. Throughout, the text is fairly informal. The subject is important. So I have tried to make the contents accessible to as many readers as possible. Hopefully others will pursue some of the ideas that are expressed here.

Source: Preface of the Book

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روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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