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شنبه ، 16 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 07:38

Age-Structural Transitions and Policy: An Emerging Issue
Ian Pool, Laura Rodriguez WongIan Pool

Abstract
In mathematical demography age-structural changes have long been a major interest, yet this has not translated across into empirical analyses to any great degree, beyond the use of simple descriptive indices and techniques such as age pyramids and dependency ratios. The most extensive research has been on ageing that represents only one phase of an age-structural transition (AST). Recently, however, there has been an upsurge in interest in the demographic and policy implications of the passage of generations/cohorts of differing sizes across key life-cycle stages. The impacts seem to be positive and the trends deterministic, and thus have been termed “demographic bonuses/dividends”, although studies that developed independently in Latin America take a more neutral position pointing to a “window of opportunity”. The difference is that bonus suggests a very deterministic path, a virtual certainty, window of opportunity suggesting instead that to gain from ASTs while the window of opportunity is occurring requires some proactive interventions. A different approach, the more detailed analysis of cohort flow shows that age-structural transition, far from being monotonic and systematic across population at the same stage of demographic transition, may be disordered, thus making proactive policy formulation and implementation more complex. These different paradigms and related methodological issues are discussed here. In: Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris 2006, PP. 3-19.

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روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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