How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.” In early March, incentives for parents to have more children ...

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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Japan is not the only country worrying about population decline–get used to a two-speed world

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

The past century has been one of unprecedented global population growth. While the number of people in the world doubled from 0.8 to 1.6 billion between 1750 and 1900, the 20th century saw a near quadrupling to 6.1 billion. In the past 15 years alone, more than 1.2 billion have been added to that. Worries about “overpopulation” can be seen everywhere from the UK to Sub-Saharan Africa. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier. A persistently low birth rate is the main reason. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier.

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Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
سه شنبه ، 26 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 06:28

Low Fertility Intention in Tehran, Iran: The Role of Attitudes, Norms, and Perceived Behavioural Control

Dr. Amir ErfaniAmir Erfani

Abstract

Department of Sociology, Nipissing University, Ontario, Canada Summary. Persistent low fertility rates are an increasing concern for countries with low fertility like Iran. Informed by the Theory of Planned Behaviour, this study examined the immediate factors influencing fertility intentions, using data from the 2012 Tehran Survey of Fertility Intentions. The findings show that more than half of young married adults in Tehran intend to have no more children. The multivariate analysis results indicate that individuals who view childbearing as being detrimental to their personal life, feel less normative pressure to have a/another child, and believe their childbearing decision is not contingent on the presence of economic resources required for childbearing, are more likely to want no (more) children or to be unsure rather than to want a/another child. Attitudes and normative pressure are dominant factors influencing the intention to have a first child, while the intention to have a second child is mainly affected by attitudes and perceived constraints. The policy implications of the results are discussed. Journal of Biosocial Science (2017), 49, 292-308. Doi: 10.1017/S0021932016000109. Click here to get the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
چهارشنبه ، 30 فروردين 1396 ، 07:48

Qualitative Analysis of Childbearing Action of Arab Couples in the City of Ahwaz

Dr. Hatam HosseiniHatam Hosseini, Soleiman Pakseresht, Mehdi Rezaei, Mariam Mehreganfar

Abstract

Fertility is one of the main three factors which affects the population changes. Currently، it is considered as a social issue in Iranian society. Although lots of quantitative research have been conducted to illustrate the determinants of fertility in Iran، but deep perception of fertility needs to study its meaning dimensions too; the dimensions that uncovers the people’s interpretation of their social world، events، conditions and forces which are related to their childbearing action. Methodologically، this study adopted a qualitative approach to concentrate deeply on childbearing action and its meaning to the actors. Grounded theory is the main method to analyze the data. The data has been collected by 20 deep interview with Arab couples in the city of Ahwaz. The results show that according to content of childbearing action، attributed meanings to the action، and realization of this action، three meaning approaches are emerged: childbearing as a consolidate-amendable action، childbearing as a perceptive-reflexive action، and finally childbearing as a limitation and secured action. Journal of Population Association of Iran, 9(17): 141-169. Click here to get the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
جمعه ، 29 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 05:35

Age Structure and Urban Migration of Youth in the Philippines

Socorro Gultiano, Peter Xenos

Abstract
This paper extends the existing research on demographic transition and age-structural change by focussing on urban-rural variations in age structure within a country. This perspective highlights the role of internal migration in age-structure change and the size of youth populations in urban areas. With the current youth surge resulting from the demographic transition, a massive geographic redistribution of the Philippine population is underway, predominantly from less urbanized to more urbanized areas. The census of 2000 reveals that 10% of youth (aged 15-29) in the less urbanized areas and 19% in the National Capital Region are migrants, i.e., they had resided in another province or municipality five years earlier. Just as importantly, women outnumber men among these migrants: the higher the level of urbanization, the lower is the sex ratio of youth migrants. This age and gender selectivity of migration has important implications for both urban and rural populations. Age dependency ratios are significantly higher in rural areas than in urban areas. While this could be interpreted as a demographic advantage to the urban population, it is clearly a disadvantage to the rural population. Also, migration has resulted in the “feminization” of urban and metropolitan populations and the “masculinization” of certain rural areas of origin. These shifts in age and sex structure have important demographic and policy implications. In Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris 2006, PP. 225-256.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 28 فروردين 1396 ، 07:38

Demand for Long-acting and Permanent Contraceptive Methods among Kurdish Women in Mahabad, Iran

Dr. Hatam HosseiniHatam Hosseini, Fatemeh Torabi. Balal Bagi

Abstract

It is anticipated that the demand for contraceptives in Iran will increase in the near future as the number of women of reproductive age increases and with women wanting smaller families. The aim of this paper was to study the demand for long-acting and permanent contraceptive methods (LAPCMs), and its determinants, among Kurdish women in Mahabad city, Iran. Data were taken from the Mahabad Fertility Survey (MFS) conducted on a sample of over 700 households in April 2012. The results show that the demand for LAPCMs was 71.35% at the time of survey, although only 27.7% of women were using these methods. Thus, the number of unintended pregnancies is likely to increase in the future if this gap is not reduced. The multivariate analysis showed significant impacts on the dependent variables of the number of children ever born, perceived contraceptive costs and childbearing intentions. Moreover, women at the end of their reproductive lives and those with higher education were more likely to desire LAPCMs. It is concluded that despite a growing use of contraceptive methods in Iran in recent decades, the development of reproductive health services and promotion of the quality of family planning services remains a necessity. Journal of Biosocial Science, 46(6): 772-785. Click here to get the paper.

 
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تازه‌های کتاب

Population Dynamics and Projection Methods: This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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