How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.”

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
سه شنبه ، 27 تیر 1396 ، 06:58

The Effect of Contraception on Fertility: Is Sub-Saharan Africa Different?

John BongaartsJohn Bongaarts


Cross-sectional analyses of the relationship between contraceptive prevalence and the total fertility rate of developing countries show the expected strong negative correlation. However, this correlation is much weaker in Sub-Saharan Africa than in the developing world as a whole. This paper aims to explain the unexpected weak effect of contraceptive use on fertility in Sub-Sharan African countries by using different regression models to obtain unbiased effects. Using DHS survey data from 40 developing countries, the analysis consists of three steps: 1) examine the conventional cross-sectional TFR-CPR relationship by region at the time of the latest available surveys, 2) remove known technical flaws in the comparisons of fertility and contraceptive prevalence and 3) analyze multiple observations of TFR and CPR per country using pooled OLS and fixed effect regressions. The conventional cross-sectional analyses produce biased results in part because technical factors, in particular post-partum overlap, create a downward bias in the effect of prevalence on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, and more importantly, the cross-sectional regression OLS parameters have a bias due to confounding country fixed effects. Technical adjustments and the use of fixed effect models remove these biases. A rise in contraceptive prevalence among fecund women has the same average effect on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa as in other regions of the developing world. This study solves a long standing demographic puzzle and reassures policy makers and family planning program managers. Journal of Demographic Research (2017), 37(6): 129-146. Click here to get the paper.

مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
جمعه ، 8 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 16:51

Population and Development: The Demographic Transition

Tim DysonTim Dyson

The demographic transition and its related effects of population growth, fertility decline and ageing populations are fraught with problems and controversy. When discussed in relation to the global south and the modern project of development, the questions and answers become more problematic. Population and Development expertly guides the reader through the demographic transition's origins in the Enlightenment and Europe, through to the rest of the world. Whilst the phenomenon continues to cause unsustainable population growth with disastrous economic and environmental implications, the author examines how its processes have underlain previous periods of sustained economic growth; helped to liberate women from the domestic domain; and contributed greatly to the rise of modern democracy. This accessible and expert analysis will enable any student or expert in development studies to understand complex and vital demographic theory. This is a book about the central role of the demographic transition in the creation of the modern world. It argues that you cannot understand the modern process of ‘development’ unless you put the demographic transition centre-stage. The great declines in human mortality and fertility that define the transition, plus the major changes in population size and structure that result from these declines, all have immense implications for the past, present and future of the world.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
چهارشنبه ، 30 فروردين 1396 ، 07:48

Qualitative Analysis of Childbearing Action of Arab Couples in the City of Ahwaz

Dr. Hatam HosseiniHatam Hosseini, Soleiman Pakseresht, Mehdi Rezaei, Mariam Mehreganfar


Fertility is one of the main three factors which affects the population changes. Currently، it is considered as a social issue in Iranian society. Although lots of quantitative research have been conducted to illustrate the determinants of fertility in Iran، but deep perception of fertility needs to study its meaning dimensions too; the dimensions that uncovers the people’s interpretation of their social world، events، conditions and forces which are related to their childbearing action. Methodologically، this study adopted a qualitative approach to concentrate deeply on childbearing action and its meaning to the actors. Grounded theory is the main method to analyze the data. The data has been collected by 20 deep interview with Arab couples in the city of Ahwaz. The results show that according to content of childbearing action، attributed meanings to the action، and realization of this action، three meaning approaches are emerged: childbearing as a consolidate-amendable action، childbearing as a perceptive-reflexive action، and finally childbearing as a limitation and secured action. Journal of Population Association of Iran, 9(17): 141-169. Click here to get the paper.

مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
يكشنبه ، 18 تیر 1396 ، 07:29

Family-Work Conflict and its Relation to Fertility Behavior: A Study Among Employed Women in Education Section in the City of Yazd

Dr. Razeghi NasrabadHajiihe Razeghi; Malihe Alimandegari; Ali Mohammadi


When matching employed women work outside the home and their roles within the home may face several problems. This study attempts to investigate the conflict between work and family and its relationship with fertility of employed women. This is based on a survey in 2014 conducted among married women working in education section in the city of Yazd. The results show that the average score of respondents’ work-family conflict is 46.07 that is at an intermediate level. The remarkable Point is relatively high-conflict family environment than the workplace. Bivariate analysis of the data showed that the number of children is negatively correlated with work-family conflict. The highest average score of work-family conflict belonging to women with one child and is equal to 54.12. Among most of women in this group, duration of marriage is less than 9 year and many of them have young children. In multivariate analysis, Duration of marriage, positions and participation of men in housework are variables that reduced impact of conflict on fertility. Despite women's experience of conflict in the family, do their family roles. With regard to the role of women in strengthening relationships between family members, increasing social support of family roles, flexible working hours and part-time work for women can be effective in reducing work-family conflict. Journal of Population Association of Iran, 2015, 10(19): 45-61. Click here to get the paper.

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تازه‌های کتاب

Population Dynamics and Projection Methods: This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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