How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.” In early March, incentives for parents to have more children ...

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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Japan is not the only country worrying about population decline–get used to a two-speed world

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

The past century has been one of unprecedented global population growth. While the number of people in the world doubled from 0.8 to 1.6 billion between 1750 and 1900, the 20th century saw a near quadrupling to 6.1 billion. In the past 15 years alone, more than 1.2 billion have been added to that. Worries about “overpopulation” can be seen everywhere from the UK to Sub-Saharan Africa. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier. A persistently low birth rate is the main reason. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
پنجشنبه ، 14 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 13:15

The Compositional Effects of Education and Employment on Greek Male and Female Fertility Rates During 2000‒2014

Christos BagavosChristos Bagavos, Alexandra Tragaki


As many of the advanced countries that were hit hard by the recent economic recession also have persistently low fertility rates, researchers are increasingly interested in examining how the education‒employment gradient shapes fertility outcomes. Our aim in this paper is to enrich the discussion about variation in crisis-driven fertility patterns by focusing on male fertility, and by comparing the fertility behavioral patterns and the compositional factors of male and female fertility under 'Great Recession' conditions. We estimate the education- and employment-specific fertility rates of men and women for the 2000‒2014 period in Greece. Using a mixed standardization and decomposition method, we estimate the influence of changes in educational levels and employment status on total male and female fertility, which we call the "compositional effect;" and of changes in fertility behavior, which we call the "fertility effect." During the recent economic recession, the decline in fertility has been far from uniform across genders, educational levels, and employment statuses. Moreover, it appears that the changes in male and female fertility rates have been driven by different underlying forces. We find that among men, negative shifts in employability were exclusively responsible for the decline in fertility rates; whereas among women, changes in the TFR were steadily conditioned by the pure fertility effect. Our findings suggest that the compositional effect on the period total fertility rate might be more important than fertility behavior per se, especially during time periods when economic variables clearly contribute to fertility outcomes. The topics tackled in the paper are potentially interesting and under-researched in particular in the context of the recent economic recession. Journal of Demographic Research (2017), 36/47: 1435-1452.

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دوشنبه ، 25 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 11:58

To Take Advantage of the Demographic Window of Opportunity or Not: The Case of Fiji

Kesaia SeniloliKesaia Seniloli


Age-structural transition is a process a population undergoes as its age structure changes from a youthful one to an ageing population. Fiji has been, and is still undergoing age-structural changes. The current and future demographic scenario for the Fiji Islands raises many critical issues and challenges. Fiji faces a period of changes in its age structure with implications on everyone and all aspects of life. The challenge is that Fiji will face changing demographic condition at a lower level of economic development. This paper attempts to study the nature and process of age-structural transition and its implications in Fiji. It also examines the age-structural changes of the two major ethnic groups. Changing age structure for Fiji presents a complex of challenges for policymakers and at the same time present potential opportunities. Many countries have benefited from the shift in balance of the broad age groups particularly the increase in working-age group, sometimes termed the demographic window of opportunity. The question of whether the “demographic bonus” or “window of opportunity” is realized in Fiji will depend on policies facilitating economic growth.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
شنبه ، 23 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 10:18

Age-Structural Transition in Brazil: Demographic Bonuses and Emerging Challenges

Laura Rodriguez Wong, José Alberto M. De Carvalho

The paper describes the Brazilian Age-Structural Transition (AST) produced primarily by fertility declines (about 56% in 25 years). Slightly ahead of most of the Latin America countries, Brazil entered a stage in which strong, mostly positive, age-structural effects have been obtained. Some improvements relating to health, nutrition and education among children and youngsters, for example, were achieved in part because of the positive impacts on policy of the AST. Among the working-age population the mature population (aged 25 to 64), that usually has high activity rates and comprises the majority of taxpayers, will increase in relative and absolute terms while the junior segment (aged 15 to 24)–a proxy of those entering for the first time into the labour force–will probably have negative growth rates. Thus, the intraworking-age ratio (ratio of the junior labour force to the mature labour force, an indicator of pressure for new employments) has a downwards trend in Brazil. Different growth rates within the working-age population are therefore a new demographic “window of opportunity”. This bonus, however, can only be exploited if full employment and higher productivity are pursued. As a necessary, although not sufficient, condition to achieve social, economic and intergenerational balances, labour-force skills should be at their highest levels. For this reason, all opportunities to become skilled should be given to the potential workforce. On the other hand, due to the AST, new challenges emerge for Brazilian society.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
شنبه ، 26 فروردين 1396 ، 16:40

Factors Associated with the Incidence of Induced Abortion in Hamedan, IranDr. Hatam Hosseini

Hatam Hosseini, Amir Erfani, Marzieh Nojomi


There is limited reliable information on abortion in Iran, where abortion is illegal and many women of reproductive age seek clandestine abortion to end their unintended pregnancy. This study aims examine determinants of induced abortion in the city of Hamedan, Iran. The study utilizes recent data from the 2015 Hamedan Survey of Fertility, conducted  in a representative sample of 3,000 married women aged 15-49 in the city of Hamedan in Iran. Binary logistic regression models are used to examine factors associated with the incidence of abortion. Results show that overall, 3.8% of respondents reported having an induced abortion in their life. Multivariate results showed that the incidence of abortion was strongly associated with women’s education, type of using contraceptive and family income level, controlling for confounding factors. Women using long-acting contraceptive methods, and those with less than a high school diploma or postsecondary education, and high level of income were more likely to report having an induced abortion. The high incidence of abortion among less or more educated women and those with high income level signify unmet family planning needs among these groups of women, which need to be addressed by focused reproductive health and family planning programs. Journal of Iran Archives of Medical Sciences (2017), 20(5): 282-287. Click here to get the paper.

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تازه‌های کتاب

Population Dynamics and Projection Methods: This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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