How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.”

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

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Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
پنجشنبه ، 20 مهر 1396 ، 13:24

Exploring the Fertility Trend in Egypt

Zakarya Al ZalakZakarya Al Zalak, Anne Goujon

Abstract

The unusual fertility increase experienced by several Arab countries in the recent years is particularly visible in Egypt, where fertility declined very slowly after 2000 and started to increase again between 2008 and 2014. We first check the quality and measurement accuracy of Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). The analysis confirms the trend since 2000. We descriptively look for possible underlying causes. We use quality criteria to check DHS data and control for tempo effect. We also perform a proximate determinants analysis to study the mechanisms affecting fertility, particularly marriage and contraceptive use patterns. The trend in fertility, which has been at a level slightly below 3.5 children per woman since 2000, is due to an increase in parity one-to-three children and a steady decline in parity four-and-more children. While changes in contraception use had the largest and a growing suppressing effect before 2000, after the turn of the century there was no change in the impact of either marriage or contraception on fertility. We find that well-educated women between 20 and 29 years lack labour market opportunities. They may have preponed their fertility. Fertility could start declining again once the labour market situation for women has improved. On the other hand, the family model of three children is still widespread in the country. The article studies the fertility increase in Egypt. It contributes to the literature on exceptions to the demographic transition, such as stalls in fertility decline, particularly in the context of Arab countries. Demographic Research, 2017, (37(32): 995-1030. Click here to get the paper.

 
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جمعه ، 29 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 05:35

Age Structure and Urban Migration of Youth in the Philippines

Socorro Gultiano, Peter Xenos

Abstract
This paper extends the existing research on demographic transition and age-structural change by focussing on urban-rural variations in age structure within a country. This perspective highlights the role of internal migration in age-structure change and the size of youth populations in urban areas. With the current youth surge resulting from the demographic transition, a massive geographic redistribution of the Philippine population is underway, predominantly from less urbanized to more urbanized areas. The census of 2000 reveals that 10% of youth (aged 15-29) in the less urbanized areas and 19% in the National Capital Region are migrants, i.e., they had resided in another province or municipality five years earlier. Just as importantly, women outnumber men among these migrants: the higher the level of urbanization, the lower is the sex ratio of youth migrants. This age and gender selectivity of migration has important implications for both urban and rural populations. Age dependency ratios are significantly higher in rural areas than in urban areas. While this could be interpreted as a demographic advantage to the urban population, it is clearly a disadvantage to the rural population. Also, migration has resulted in the “feminization” of urban and metropolitan populations and the “masculinization” of certain rural areas of origin. These shifts in age and sex structure have important demographic and policy implications. In Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris 2006, PP. 225-256.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
پنجشنبه ، 13 مهر 1396 ، 13:33

Timing Effects on Fertility, Marriage, and Divorce

Robert SchoenRobert Schoen

Introduction

In this chapter we examine fertility, marriage, and divorce, events that may never happen to an individual or that may happen more than once. The focus is on timing effects, in particular how the pace of cohort behavior impacts period measures, with feedback effects generally not considered. The chapter begins with a discussion of period and cohort perspectives on fertility. It then describes two approaches to adjusting period fertility for timing effects, one proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) and the other involving the Average Cohort Fertility. Those measures are compared in the context of population models and 20th century experience in the United States. Apparently paradoxical period cohort relationships in fertility are further examined using the dynamic fertility model underlying the Bongaarts-Feeney approach. Extensions of the Average Cohort Fertility approach to first marriage and to divorce are then described and discussed.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 25 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 11:58

To Take Advantage of the Demographic Window of Opportunity or Not: The Case of Fiji

Kesaia SeniloliKesaia Seniloli

Abstract

Age-structural transition is a process a population undergoes as its age structure changes from a youthful one to an ageing population. Fiji has been, and is still undergoing age-structural changes. The current and future demographic scenario for the Fiji Islands raises many critical issues and challenges. Fiji faces a period of changes in its age structure with implications on everyone and all aspects of life. The challenge is that Fiji will face changing demographic condition at a lower level of economic development. This paper attempts to study the nature and process of age-structural transition and its implications in Fiji. It also examines the age-structural changes of the two major ethnic groups. Changing age structure for Fiji presents a complex of challenges for policymakers and at the same time present potential opportunities. Many countries have benefited from the shift in balance of the broad age groups particularly the increase in working-age group, sometimes termed the demographic window of opportunity. The question of whether the “demographic bonus” or “window of opportunity” is realized in Fiji will depend on policies facilitating economic growth.

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تازه‌های کتاب

روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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