How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.”

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

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Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 15 خرداد 1396 ، 05:52

Family Planning and Women’s Educational Advancement in Tehran, Iran

Dr. Amir ErfaniAmir Erfani

Abstract

This study examines the impact of contraceptive use on women’s educational advancement as an indicator of female empowerment, using retrospective data from the 2009 Tehran Fertility Survey. The results show that 15 per cent of married women continued their education after marriage. Also, women using modern contraceptives before a first birth were more likely to experience a 1–2-year increase in education level after marriage, controlling for other factors. Recent cohorts were more likely to continue their education after marriage, especially those who used modern vs. traditional contraceptives. The findings clearly indicate that family planning use after marriage enables women to advance their education by freeing them from reproductive activities. Canadian Studies in Population (2015), 42(1-2): 35-52. Click here to get the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
پنجشنبه ، 23 شهریور 1396 ، 18:55

Persistent High Fertility in Rural AfricaMichel Garenne

Michel Garenne

The fertility transition, defined as a change from high and natural fertility (in a range of five to nine children per woman) to low and controlled fertility (down to two children per woman or less) started in France in the 18th century, and spread during the 19th century to other European populations, including expatriate populations of North America, Australia, New-Zealand, and South Africa. It arose through the strong desire of couples (husband and wife) to limit their family size, and occurred without any state intervention, often despite reluctance from Christian churches, and by using so-called traditional methods of contraception (withdrawal, spouse separation, etc.). This change occurred in the early phases of economic development and social change, although without any clear correlation with these complex processes (Coale and Watkins 1986; Knodel and van de Walle 1979).

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
جمعه ، 29 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 05:35

Age Structure and Urban Migration of Youth in the Philippines

Socorro Gultiano, Peter Xenos

Abstract
This paper extends the existing research on demographic transition and age-structural change by focussing on urban-rural variations in age structure within a country. This perspective highlights the role of internal migration in age-structure change and the size of youth populations in urban areas. With the current youth surge resulting from the demographic transition, a massive geographic redistribution of the Philippine population is underway, predominantly from less urbanized to more urbanized areas. The census of 2000 reveals that 10% of youth (aged 15-29) in the less urbanized areas and 19% in the National Capital Region are migrants, i.e., they had resided in another province or municipality five years earlier. Just as importantly, women outnumber men among these migrants: the higher the level of urbanization, the lower is the sex ratio of youth migrants. This age and gender selectivity of migration has important implications for both urban and rural populations. Age dependency ratios are significantly higher in rural areas than in urban areas. While this could be interpreted as a demographic advantage to the urban population, it is clearly a disadvantage to the rural population. Also, migration has resulted in the “feminization” of urban and metropolitan populations and the “masculinization” of certain rural areas of origin. These shifts in age and sex structure have important demographic and policy implications. In Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris 2006, PP. 225-256.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 25 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 11:58

To Take Advantage of the Demographic Window of Opportunity or Not: The Case of Fiji

Kesaia SeniloliKesaia Seniloli

Abstract

Age-structural transition is a process a population undergoes as its age structure changes from a youthful one to an ageing population. Fiji has been, and is still undergoing age-structural changes. The current and future demographic scenario for the Fiji Islands raises many critical issues and challenges. Fiji faces a period of changes in its age structure with implications on everyone and all aspects of life. The challenge is that Fiji will face changing demographic condition at a lower level of economic development. This paper attempts to study the nature and process of age-structural transition and its implications in Fiji. It also examines the age-structural changes of the two major ethnic groups. Changing age structure for Fiji presents a complex of challenges for policymakers and at the same time present potential opportunities. Many countries have benefited from the shift in balance of the broad age groups particularly the increase in working-age group, sometimes termed the demographic window of opportunity. The question of whether the “demographic bonus” or “window of opportunity” is realized in Fiji will depend on policies facilitating economic growth.

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تازه‌های کتاب

روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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