30 Years of Experience of the Two-Child Policy in Yicheng, China

Yu Qin, Fei Wang

More and more countries have been adopting population policies to increase birth rates, in order to deal with the growing challenges of aging (United Nations 2013). Following the recent trend, China, the most populous country in the world, ended its 35-year-long one-child policy and started to allow two children for each married couple from January 1, 2016. It is still too early to evaluate the new two-child policy directly. However, something may be learnt from what has happened in Yicheng in the past 30 years. Yicheng is a typical agricultural county in Shanxi province with a population that is over 80% rural (Figure 1). It first adopted the two-child policy in 1985, aiming to observe how fast birth rates would increase if fertility restrictions were ...

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

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Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
پنجشنبه ، 13 مهر 1396 ، 13:33

Timing Effects on Fertility, Marriage, and Divorce

Robert SchoenRobert Schoen

Introduction

In this chapter we examine fertility, marriage, and divorce, events that may never happen to an individual or that may happen more than once. The focus is on timing effects, in particular how the pace of cohort behavior impacts period measures, with feedback effects generally not considered. The chapter begins with a discussion of period and cohort perspectives on fertility. It then describes two approaches to adjusting period fertility for timing effects, one proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney (1998) and the other involving the Average Cohort Fertility. Those measures are compared in the context of population models and 20th century experience in the United States. Apparently paradoxical period cohort relationships in fertility are further examined using the dynamic fertility model underlying the Bongaarts-Feeney approach. Extensions of the Average Cohort Fertility approach to first marriage and to divorce are then described and discussed.

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شنبه ، 23 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 10:18

Age-Structural Transition in Brazil: Demographic Bonuses and Emerging Challenges

Laura Rodriguez Wong, José Alberto M. De Carvalho

Abstract
The paper describes the Brazilian Age-Structural Transition (AST) produced primarily by fertility declines (about 56% in 25 years). Slightly ahead of most of the Latin America countries, Brazil entered a stage in which strong, mostly positive, age-structural effects have been obtained. Some improvements relating to health, nutrition and education among children and youngsters, for example, were achieved in part because of the positive impacts on policy of the AST. Among the working-age population the mature population (aged 25 to 64), that usually has high activity rates and comprises the majority of taxpayers, will increase in relative and absolute terms while the junior segment (aged 15 to 24)–a proxy of those entering for the first time into the labour force–will probably have negative growth rates. Thus, the intraworking-age ratio (ratio of the junior labour force to the mature labour force, an indicator of pressure for new employments) has a downwards trend in Brazil. Different growth rates within the working-age population are therefore a new demographic “window of opportunity”. This bonus, however, can only be exploited if full employment and higher productivity are pursued. As a necessary, although not sufficient, condition to achieve social, economic and intergenerational balances, labour-force skills should be at their highest levels. For this reason, all opportunities to become skilled should be given to the potential workforce. On the other hand, due to the AST, new challenges emerge for Brazilian society.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 12 تیر 1396 ، 05:56

Contraceptive Use Among Women in Ogoja and Obudu Local Government Areas, Cross River State, Nigeria

David B. Ugal, Boniface A. UshieDr. Boniface A. Ushie

Abstract

Sexual behaviour in human societies is embedded in a complex web of shared ideas. Moral rules and regulations, obvious associations and obscured symbols are part of the complex behaviour patterns. Sexual behaviour varies from one culture to another, from one stage of development to another as well as from one period of history to another. Many factors including biological, social, political, educational, economic and religious affect sexual behaviour. This study was undertaken to assess women’s knowledge of modern contraception, examine the role of culture in contraception use and find out the relationship between background characteristics and contraception use. The results of this study indicate that knowledge of contraception is relatively low in both rural and urban centres of the study area. Given the importance of family planning to the reduction of growing population, it is crucial to embark on an aggressive education and enlightenment of the people on the need to use contraception in order to prevent unwanted, unintended and ill-timed pregnancies. The media should be effectively harnessed to take its rightful position in the dissemination of information to the people. African Population Studies, 2013, 27(2): 155-163, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.11564/27-2-437. Click here to get the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
شنبه ، 16 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 07:49

Mapping Age-Structural Transitions: A Comparative Perspective

Ian PoolIan Pool

Abstract

This chapter provides empirical data on regions and case-study countries at different stages of demographic and age-structural transition. It covers both the longer term, out several decades, and the shorter period to 2015 spanned by the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. The policy implications of age-structural transitions are discussed and their interrelations with other population transition models identified. In Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris 2006, PP. 3-19.

 
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روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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