How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.”

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

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Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
جمعه ، 29 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 05:35

Age Structure and Urban Migration of Youth in the Philippines

Socorro Gultiano, Peter Xenos

Abstract
This paper extends the existing research on demographic transition and age-structural change by focussing on urban-rural variations in age structure within a country. This perspective highlights the role of internal migration in age-structure change and the size of youth populations in urban areas. With the current youth surge resulting from the demographic transition, a massive geographic redistribution of the Philippine population is underway, predominantly from less urbanized to more urbanized areas. The census of 2000 reveals that 10% of youth (aged 15-29) in the less urbanized areas and 19% in the National Capital Region are migrants, i.e., they had resided in another province or municipality five years earlier. Just as importantly, women outnumber men among these migrants: the higher the level of urbanization, the lower is the sex ratio of youth migrants. This age and gender selectivity of migration has important implications for both urban and rural populations. Age dependency ratios are significantly higher in rural areas than in urban areas. While this could be interpreted as a demographic advantage to the urban population, it is clearly a disadvantage to the rural population. Also, migration has resulted in the “feminization” of urban and metropolitan populations and the “masculinization” of certain rural areas of origin. These shifts in age and sex structure have important demographic and policy implications. In Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris 2006, PP. 225-256.

 
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دوشنبه ، 25 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 11:58

To Take Advantage of the Demographic Window of Opportunity or Not: The Case of Fiji

Kesaia SeniloliKesaia Seniloli

Abstract

Age-structural transition is a process a population undergoes as its age structure changes from a youthful one to an ageing population. Fiji has been, and is still undergoing age-structural changes. The current and future demographic scenario for the Fiji Islands raises many critical issues and challenges. Fiji faces a period of changes in its age structure with implications on everyone and all aspects of life. The challenge is that Fiji will face changing demographic condition at a lower level of economic development. This paper attempts to study the nature and process of age-structural transition and its implications in Fiji. It also examines the age-structural changes of the two major ethnic groups. Changing age structure for Fiji presents a complex of challenges for policymakers and at the same time present potential opportunities. Many countries have benefited from the shift in balance of the broad age groups particularly the increase in working-age group, sometimes termed the demographic window of opportunity. The question of whether the “demographic bonus” or “window of opportunity” is realized in Fiji will depend on policies facilitating economic growth.

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جمعه ، 16 تیر 1396 ، 23:30

Tempo Effect of Childbearing and Adjusted Level of Fertility in Iran

Journal of Population Association of IranMohammadreza Boromandzadeh; Aliyar Ahmadi

Abstract

Although the demographic literature offers many measures of fertility, the total fertility rate (TFR) is now used more often than any other indicator. The TFR is defined as the average number of births a woman would have if she were to live through her reproductive years (ages 15– 49) bear children at each age at the rates observed in a particular year or period. It is a hypothetical measure because no real group of women has experienced or will necessarily experience these particular rates. But this measure is disturbed by some timing effects called Tempo effects - distortions due to changes in the timing of births. The conventional TFR can be considered to consist of a quantum and a tempo component. Quantum component of the TFR would have been observed in the absence of changes in the timing of childbearing during the period in which the TFR is measured. The tempo component equals the distortion that occurs due to timing changes. In this paper history and the methodology of the tempo and quantum effects of fertility is discussed and the methods to adjust the total fertility rate (TFR) are elaborated focusing on method presented by Bongaarts and Feeney (BF method 1998). Meanwhile the analyses of fertility rates in this duration (1996-2011) in Iran illustrate the necessity of employing tempo adjusted methods in measuring fertility. Journal of Population Association of Iran, 2015, 10(19): 143-163. Click here to get the paper.

 
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شنبه ، 23 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 10:18

Age-Structural Transition in Brazil: Demographic Bonuses and Emerging Challenges

Laura Rodriguez Wong, José Alberto M. De Carvalho

Abstract
The paper describes the Brazilian Age-Structural Transition (AST) produced primarily by fertility declines (about 56% in 25 years). Slightly ahead of most of the Latin America countries, Brazil entered a stage in which strong, mostly positive, age-structural effects have been obtained. Some improvements relating to health, nutrition and education among children and youngsters, for example, were achieved in part because of the positive impacts on policy of the AST. Among the working-age population the mature population (aged 25 to 64), that usually has high activity rates and comprises the majority of taxpayers, will increase in relative and absolute terms while the junior segment (aged 15 to 24)–a proxy of those entering for the first time into the labour force–will probably have negative growth rates. Thus, the intraworking-age ratio (ratio of the junior labour force to the mature labour force, an indicator of pressure for new employments) has a downwards trend in Brazil. Different growth rates within the working-age population are therefore a new demographic “window of opportunity”. This bonus, however, can only be exploited if full employment and higher productivity are pursued. As a necessary, although not sufficient, condition to achieve social, economic and intergenerational balances, labour-force skills should be at their highest levels. For this reason, all opportunities to become skilled should be given to the potential workforce. On the other hand, due to the AST, new challenges emerge for Brazilian society.

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Population Dynamics and Projection Methods: This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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