30 Years of Experience of the Two-Child Policy in Yicheng, China

Yu Qin, Fei Wang

More and more countries have been adopting population policies to increase birth rates, in order to deal with the growing challenges of aging (United Nations 2013). Following the recent trend, China, the most populous country in the world, ended its 35-year-long one-child policy and started to allow two children for each married couple from January 1, 2016. It is still too early to evaluate the new two-child policy directly. However, something may be learnt from what has happened in Yicheng in the past 30 years. Yicheng is a typical agricultural county in Shanxi province with a population that is over 80% rural (Figure 1). It first adopted the two-child policy in 1985, aiming to observe how fast birth rates would increase if fertility restrictions were ...

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

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Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
سه شنبه ، 28 شهریور 1396 ، 04:37

Fertility in the Time of Economic CrisisN.IUSSP

Ludovica Comolli

When uncertain about the stability of their present or future earnings or jobs, individuals postpone life-changing decisions. Scientific research confirms conventional wisdom and shows that the Great Recession that started in 2008 had a paralyzing effect on childbearing in most western economies. As illustrated in Figure 1, after a period of growing fertility at the beginning of the 21st century, the US and most countries in Europe registered a sudden fertility decline. Researchers tend to agree that the drop is largely due to the global economic downturn that violently hit those same countries (Sobotka et al. 2011, Pison 2011, Goldstein et al. 2013, Schneider 2015).

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
شنبه ، 16 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 07:38

Age-Structural Transitions and Policy: An Emerging Issue
Ian Pool, Laura Rodriguez WongIan Pool

Abstract
In mathematical demography age-structural changes have long been a major interest, yet this has not translated across into empirical analyses to any great degree, beyond the use of simple descriptive indices and techniques such as age pyramids and dependency ratios. The most extensive research has been on ageing that represents only one phase of an age-structural transition (AST). Recently, however, there has been an upsurge in interest in the demographic and policy implications of the passage of generations/cohorts of differing sizes across key life-cycle stages. The impacts seem to be positive and the trends deterministic, and thus have been termed “demographic bonuses/dividends”, although studies that developed independently in Latin America take a more neutral position pointing to a “window of opportunity”. The difference is that bonus suggests a very deterministic path, a virtual certainty, window of opportunity suggesting instead that to gain from ASTs while the window of opportunity is occurring requires some proactive interventions. A different approach, the more detailed analysis of cohort flow shows that age-structural transition, far from being monotonic and systematic across population at the same stage of demographic transition, may be disordered, thus making proactive policy formulation and implementation more complex. These different paradigms and related methodological issues are discussed here. In: Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris 2006, PP. 3-19.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
پنجشنبه ، 23 شهریور 1396 ، 18:55

Persistent High Fertility in Rural AfricaMichel Garenne

Michel Garenne

The fertility transition, defined as a change from high and natural fertility (in a range of five to nine children per woman) to low and controlled fertility (down to two children per woman or less) started in France in the 18th century, and spread during the 19th century to other European populations, including expatriate populations of North America, Australia, New-Zealand, and South Africa. It arose through the strong desire of couples (husband and wife) to limit their family size, and occurred without any state intervention, often despite reluctance from Christian churches, and by using so-called traditional methods of contraception (withdrawal, spouse separation, etc.). This change occurred in the early phases of economic development and social change, although without any clear correlation with these complex processes (Coale and Watkins 1986; Knodel and van de Walle 1979).

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
جمعه ، 8 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 16:37

Causes and Consequences of Skewed Sex Ratios

Tim DysonTim Dyson

Abstract

Slightly more males are born in the world than females. But because male mortality is usually greater, in old age groups there are many more women than men. The situation is particularly stark in the former Soviet Union—where male adult death rates are exceptionally high. In much of Asia, strong son preference has long informed unusually high female child mortality. And the impact of this on sex ratios has been reinforced by the recent spread of sex-selective abortion. Especially in China, there are an unusually large number of boys relative to girls. Sex ratios are also skewed by migration—most notably, male labor migration. Unbalanced sex ratios have many effects. Among other things, research has focused on the consequences of male outmigration for those who are "left behind," and the implications of the coming heightened masculinity of young adult populations in Asia—e.g. with respect to marriage and crime. Journal of Annual Review of Sociology (2012), 38. 443-461.

 
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تازه‌های کتاب

روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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