How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.” In early March, incentives for parents to have more children ...

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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Japan is not the only country worrying about population decline–get used to a two-speed world

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

The past century has been one of unprecedented global population growth. While the number of people in the world doubled from 0.8 to 1.6 billion between 1750 and 1900, the 20th century saw a near quadrupling to 6.1 billion. In the past 15 years alone, more than 1.2 billion have been added to that. Worries about “overpopulation” can be seen everywhere from the UK to Sub-Saharan Africa. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier. A persistently low birth rate is the main reason. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier.

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Demography
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جمعه ، 8 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 16:37

Causes and Consequences of Skewed Sex Ratios

Tim DysonTim Dyson

Abstract

Slightly more males are born in the world than females. But because male mortality is usually greater, in old age groups there are many more women than men. The situation is particularly stark in the former Soviet Union—where male adult death rates are exceptionally high. In much of Asia, strong son preference has long informed unusually high female child mortality. And the impact of this on sex ratios has been reinforced by the recent spread of sex-selective abortion. Especially in China, there are an unusually large number of boys relative to girls. Sex ratios are also skewed by migration—most notably, male labor migration. Unbalanced sex ratios have many effects. Among other things, research has focused on the consequences of male outmigration for those who are "left behind," and the implications of the coming heightened masculinity of young adult populations in Asia—e.g. with respect to marriage and crime. Journal of Annual Review of Sociology (2012), 38. 443-461.

 
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سه شنبه ، 5 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 01:49

Fertility by Birth Order Among the Descendants of Immigrants in Selected European Countries

Hill KuluHill Kulu, Tina Hannemann, Arianne Pailhé, Karel Neels, Sandra Krapf, Amparo González-Ferrer, Gunnar Andersson

Abstract

This study investigates the childbearing patterns of the descendants of immigrants in six European countries, with a focus on women whose parents arrived in Europe from high-fertility countries. While the fertility levels of immigrants to Europe have been examined in the recent literature, the childbearing patterns among their descendants have received little attention. Using longitudinal data from six European countries and applying Poisson regression models, the study shows that many descendants of immigrants exhibit first birth levels that are similar to the native population in their respective countries; however, first birth levels are slightly elevated among women of Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin in the UK and for those of Turkish descent in France and Belgium. Transition rates to a second child vary less across ethnic groups; only women of Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin in the UK exhibit elevated second birth levels. Most women with immigrant family background in the UK, France and Belgium show significantly higher third birth levels than natives in those countries. The inclusion of women’s level of education in the analysis has little effect on fertility differences across the ethnic groups. Overall, the childbearing behaviour of the second generation falls in between the fertility pathways experienced by their parents’ generation and the respective native populations. The analysis supports the idea that both the mainstream society and the minority subculture shape the childbearing patterns of the descendants of immigrants in Europe. Fertility levels of the descendants of immigrants from high-fertility countries are expected to further decline in the third generation, but a significant intra-group heterogeneity is likely to persist. Journal of Population and Development Review, Early View, DOIs http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/padr.12037.

 
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سه شنبه ، 5 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 02:09

Understanding Global Demographic Convergence Since 1950

Chirs WilsonChris Wilson

Abstract

Is the world converging to a single demographic regime? Or are groups of countries following distinct paths through the process of demographic transition? The answers to these questions are pivotal to our understanding of the nature and mechanisms of population change. They are also key elements for deriving the assumptions that should underlie population projections. There has been considerable interest in global demographic convergence during the last decade, with most work drawing on statistical methods that are widely used in economics. This article takes a different approach to most of the existing literature, examining the fertility and mortality trajectories over time that various appropriately defined world regions have followed. The data suggest that five distinct regional histories can be traced in mortality, and three in fertility, and that global convergence has moved more rapidly and unambiguously in fertility than in mortality. Journal of Population and Development Review, 37(2): 375-388, Jun 2011.

 
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سه شنبه ، 29 فروردين 1396 ، 11:01

The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition

Ron LesthaegheRon Lesthaeghe

Abstract

This article presents a narrative of the unfolding of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) since the theory was first formulated in 1986. The first part recapitulates the foundations of the theory, and documents the spread of the SDT to the point that it now covers most European populations. Also for Europe, it focuses on the relationship between the SDT and the growing heterogeneity in period fertility levels. It is shown that the current positive relationship between SDT and TFR levels is not a violation of the SDT theory, but the outcome of a "split correlation" with different sub-narratives concerning the onset of fertility postponement and the degree of subsequent recuperation in two parts of Europe. The second part of the article addresses the issue of whether the SDT has spread or is currently spreading in industrialized Asian countries. Evidence gathered for Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan is presented. That evidence pertains to both the macro-level (national trends in postponement of marriage and parenthood, rise of cohabitation) and the micro-level (connections between individual values orientations and postponement of parenthood). Strong similarities are found with SDT patterns in Southern Europe, except for the fact that parenthood is still very rare among Asian cohabiting partners. Population and Development Review, 36(2): 211–251. Click here or here to get the paper.

 
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تازه‌های کتاب

Population Dynamics and Projection Methods: This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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