How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.”

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

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Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
سه شنبه ، 13 تیر 1396 ، 04:26

Fertility Change in the American Indian and Alaska Native Population, 1980–2010

Sarah Cannon, Christine PercheskiJournal of Demographic Research

Abstract

Since 1990, Vital Statistics reports show a dramatic decline in the total fertility rates (TFRs) of American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) women in the United States. We study whether the decrease in TFRs is due to a real change in fertility for a stable population; a compositional change in who identifies as AI/AN; or a methodological issue stemming from differences in identifying race across the data systems used to calculate fertility rates. We use data from the decennial US Census to study change in AI/AN fertility from 1980–2010. We find declining TFRs when fertility is calculated within a single data system. Additionally, although TFRs are relatively stable within the subgroups of married and unmarried AI/AN women, the proportion of AI/AN women who are married has declined across birth cohorts. The decrease in TFRs for AI/AN women is a real change in fertility patterns and is not due to differences in racial identification across data systems. We update knowledge of AI/AN fertility to include the decline in TFRs between 1980 and 2010. Demographic Research, 2017, 37(1): 1-12. Click here to get the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
شنبه ، 16 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 07:38

Age-Structural Transitions and Policy: An Emerging Issue
Ian Pool, Laura Rodriguez WongIan Pool

Abstract
In mathematical demography age-structural changes have long been a major interest, yet this has not translated across into empirical analyses to any great degree, beyond the use of simple descriptive indices and techniques such as age pyramids and dependency ratios. The most extensive research has been on ageing that represents only one phase of an age-structural transition (AST). Recently, however, there has been an upsurge in interest in the demographic and policy implications of the passage of generations/cohorts of differing sizes across key life-cycle stages. The impacts seem to be positive and the trends deterministic, and thus have been termed “demographic bonuses/dividends”, although studies that developed independently in Latin America take a more neutral position pointing to a “window of opportunity”. The difference is that bonus suggests a very deterministic path, a virtual certainty, window of opportunity suggesting instead that to gain from ASTs while the window of opportunity is occurring requires some proactive interventions. A different approach, the more detailed analysis of cohort flow shows that age-structural transition, far from being monotonic and systematic across population at the same stage of demographic transition, may be disordered, thus making proactive policy formulation and implementation more complex. These different paradigms and related methodological issues are discussed here. In: Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris 2006, PP. 3-19.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 12 تیر 1396 ، 22:28

Level and Determinants of High Fertility in two Contrasting Populations in Nigeria

Ayo S Adebowale, Oyindamola B Yusuf, Babatunde M Gbadebo, Tukur Dahiru

Abstract

This study examined levels and determinants of high fertility in the north-west and south-west zones in Nigeria. The study utilized 2013 nation-wide survey data on women aged 15-49 years (n=11,300). Data were analysed using ANOVA, logistic-regression, Brass P/F-ratio, Brass-relational Gompertz fertility and survival analysis models. About 44.4% of women in the north-west had high fertility (CEB≥5) compared to 26.9% in the south-west. The refined TFR, childbearing transition probabilities and progression rate were higher in the north-west (prr=0.2686) than south-west (prr=0.1709). The extent at which the age location of childbearing in the north-west (α=-0.003, StdE=0.083) differs from the standard was higher than south-west (α=-0.032, SE=0.95), but the fertility distribution across ages in the south-west was narrower. The odds of high fertility was higher in the north-west (OR= 2.18, C.I=1.99-2.37, p<0.001) than south-west. This odds barely changed when other factors such as age, age at first-sex, age at first-birth, modern contraceptive use, wealth quintile, education, religion, ethnicity, sex preference and ideal family size were controlled for. Fertility level was higher in the north-west than south-west. Improving women’s education in the north-west may facilitate low fertility in the region. African Population Studies, 2017, 31(1): 3307-3323. Click here to get the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
شنبه ، 26 فروردين 1396 ، 16:40

Factors Associated with the Incidence of Induced Abortion in Hamedan, IranDr. Hatam Hosseini

Hatam Hosseini, Amir Erfani, Marzieh Nojomi

Abstract

There is limited reliable information on abortion in Iran, where abortion is illegal and many women of reproductive age seek clandestine abortion to end their unintended pregnancy. This study aims examine determinants of induced abortion in the city of Hamedan, Iran. The study utilizes recent data from the 2015 Hamedan Survey of Fertility, conducted  in a representative sample of 3,000 married women aged 15-49 in the city of Hamedan in Iran. Binary logistic regression models are used to examine factors associated with the incidence of abortion. Results show that overall, 3.8% of respondents reported having an induced abortion in their life. Multivariate results showed that the incidence of abortion was strongly associated with women’s education, type of using contraceptive and family income level, controlling for confounding factors. Women using long-acting contraceptive methods, and those with less than a high school diploma or postsecondary education, and high level of income were more likely to report having an induced abortion. The high incidence of abortion among less or more educated women and those with high income level signify unmet family planning needs among these groups of women, which need to be addressed by focused reproductive health and family planning programs. Journal of Iran Archives of Medical Sciences (2017), 20(5): 282-287. Click here to get the paper.

 
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تازه‌های کتاب

Population Dynamics and Projection Methods: This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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