How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.” In early March, incentives for parents to have more children ...

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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Japan is not the only country worrying about population decline–get used to a two-speed world

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

The past century has been one of unprecedented global population growth. While the number of people in the world doubled from 0.8 to 1.6 billion between 1750 and 1900, the 20th century saw a near quadrupling to 6.1 billion. In the past 15 years alone, more than 1.2 billion have been added to that. Worries about “overpopulation” can be seen everywhere from the UK to Sub-Saharan Africa. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier. A persistently low birth rate is the main reason. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier.

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Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 4 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 12:07

Fertility Decline in the Islamic Republic of Iran: 1972-2000

Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, Peter McDonaldDr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi

Abstract

Confounding all conventional wisdom, the fertility rate in the Islamic Republic of Iran fell from around 7.0 births per woman in the early 1980s to 2.1 births per woman in 2000. That this, the largest and fastest fall in fertility ever recorded, should have occurred in one of the world’s few Islamic Republics demands explanation. The paper addresses this issue in three parts. The second part is its core: a description of fertility levels, trends and patterns in Iran by rural and urban areas and provinces in the 1972-2000 period. Own-children data from the 1986 and 1996 Censuses as well as the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS) allow us to analyse single-year movements of fertility over the last three decades. This demographic description is proceeded by a socio-political history of Iran in the years 1970-2000, providing a context for the demographic changes. We conclude with some speculations linking specific socio-economic and political changes to the demographic change. Our concluding arguments suggest continued low fertility in Iran. Asian Population Studies, 2(2): 217-238, 2006. Click here to get the paper.

 
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سه شنبه ، 29 فروردين 1396 ، 04:17

The Second Demographic Transition: A Concise Overview of Its Development

Ron LesthaegheRon Lesthaeghe

Abstract

This article gives a concise overview of the theoretical development of the concept of the “Second Demographic Transition” since it was coined in 1986, its components, and its applicability, first to European populations and subsequently also to non-European societies as well. Both the demographic and the societal contrasts between the first demographic transition (FDT) and the second demographic transition (SDT) are highlighted. Then, the major criticisms of the SDT theory are outlined, and these issues are discussed in the light of the most recent developments in Europe, the United States, the Far East, and Latin America. It turns out that three major SDT patterns have developed and that these evolutions are contingent on much older systems of kinship and family organization. PNAS, December 23, 2014, 111(51): 18112-18115. Click here to get the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
شنبه ، 2 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 12:28

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-ShavaziFertility and Multiculturalism: Immigrant Fertility in Australia, 1977-1991

Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, Peter McDonald

Abstract

This article examines the fertility patterns of immigrant groups in Australia during the period, 1977-1991. In this period, the previous policies of assimilation or integration of immigrants into mainstream culture were set aside in favor of a policy of multiculturalism, one of the dimensions of which was support for maintenance of culture. The general finding of research relating to the period prior to multiculturalism was that immigrants adapted to Australian fertility patterns. This study examines whether immigrants and their children in the era of multiculturalism have been more likely to maintain the fertility patterns of their country of origin than was the case in the past. The study concludes that while adaptation to Australian patterns remains the dominant feature of the fertility patterns of immigrants, Italian and Greek Australians show evidence of cultural maintenance. International Migration Review, 34(1): pp. 215-242, Spring, 2000.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
جمعه ، 1 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 05:20

Childbearing Among First- and Second-Generation Russians in Estonia Against the Background of the Sending and Host Countries

Allan Puur, Leen Rahnu, Liili Abuladze, Luule Sakkeus, Sergei Zakharov

AbstractAllan Puur

An expanding literature documents the childbearing patterns of migrants and their descendants in contemporary Europe. The existing evidence pertains mainly to the northern, western, and southern regions of the continent, while less is known about the fertility of migrants who have moved between the countries of Eastern Europe. The aim of this study is to examine the fertility patterns of first- and second-generation Russians in Estonia, relative to the sending and host populations. The study draws on the Estonian and Russian Generations and Gender Surveys. Proportional hazards models are estimated for the transitions to first, second, and third births. Russian migrants in Estonia exhibit greater similarity to the sending population, with a lower propensity for having a second and third birth than the host population. This pattern extends to the descendants of migrants. However, mixed Estonian-Russian parentage, enrolment in Estonian-language schools, and residence among the host population are associated with the convergence of Russians’ childbearing behaviour with the host-country patterns. The findings support the cultural maintenance and adaptation perspectives; selectivity was found to be less important. The study focuses on a previously under-researched context and underscores the importance of contextual factors in shaping migrants’ fertility patterns. It raises the possibility that, depending on the childbearing trends and levels among the sending and receiving populations, large-scale migration may reduce rather than increase aggregate fertility in the host country. With the advancement of the fertility transition in sending countries, this situation may become more common in Europe in the future. Journal of Demographic Research, 36(41): 1209-1254. Click here to get the paper.

 
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تازه‌های کتاب

Population Dynamics and Projection Methods: This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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