How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.” In early March, incentives for parents to have more children ...

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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Japan is not the only country worrying about population decline–get used to a two-speed world

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

The past century has been one of unprecedented global population growth. While the number of people in the world doubled from 0.8 to 1.6 billion between 1750 and 1900, the 20th century saw a near quadrupling to 6.1 billion. In the past 15 years alone, more than 1.2 billion have been added to that. Worries about “overpopulation” can be seen everywhere from the UK to Sub-Saharan Africa. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier. A persistently low birth rate is the main reason. So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7% from five years earlier.

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Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
جمعه ، 1 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 05:05

The Long-term Determinants of Marital Fertility in the Developed World (19th and 20th centuries): The Role of Welfare Policies

Jesús J. Sánchez-BarricarteJesús J. Sánchez-Barricarte

Abstract

Demographic transition theory was shattered dramatically as a result of the research carried out in the course of the Princeton European Fertility Project. There is still no consensus among demographers as to the causes underlying the fertility transition. We set out to test the explanatory capacity of certain variables which have traditionally been used to interpret the historical decline in fertility (mortality, level of education, economic development, urbanization) as well as the role played by the rise of the welfare state. We collected information on different kinds of socioeconomic variables in 25 developed countries over a very long period of time. We carried out panel cointegrating regressions and country panel fixed and time effects generalized least squares. We show that the decline in mortality, the increase in educational level, and economic factors all played a leading role in the historical decline in fertility. We found that the present welfare system places a remarkable burden on those who decide to have a family. A new kind of public social transfer model needs to be designed which will minimize the damaging consequences that our current welfare states have had with regard to fertility. The emphasis on the causal impact of the emergence and maturation of the social welfare system using Lindert’s data on social transfers since the late 19th century to 1990. 2) The enormous amount of historical data compiled, as documented in the Appendix. 3) The modern panel cointegration techniques used to analyze the long- and short-term impacts of the different determinants of fertility. Journal of Demographic Research, 36(42): 1255-1298. Click here to get the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
جمعه ، 25 فروردين 1396 ، 03:27

Prolonged Birth Intervals in Hamedan, Iran: Variations and Determinants

Amir Erfani, Marzieh Nojomi, Hatam HosseiniDr. Amir Erfani

Abstract

The enduring sub-replacement fertility rate over the last decades in Iran is one of the outcomes of changing the timing of births, which has been understudied. Using retrospective data from the 2015 Hamedan Survey of Fertility, conducted among a representative sample of 3,000 married women aged 15-49, this study examines variation in the medians length of first, second and third birth intervals estimated by cumulative survival functions and investigates the proximate and socio-demographic determinants of birth intervals, using Cox’s proportional hazard models. The median first, second and third birth intervals were estimated at 28, 74 and 136 months, respectively. The length of birth intervals has increased significantly from before 1995 to 2005-2015 periods (from 19-43 months for the first birth and from 43-81 months for the second birth). Multivariate results point to the importance of contraceptive use and education as the two key determinants of birth intervals, with greater negative effects on the risk of second and third births. Women with longer breastfeeding duration and no dead of the preceding children had lower hazards (longer birth intervals) of the second and third births. The risk of births was higher among unemployed and rural migrants, and timing of the third birth was influenced by son preference (women with two girls than at least one boy were 56 percent more likely to have a third birth). The implications of the results for low fertility and maternal and child health in Iran are discussed. This paper has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Biosocial Science. An earlier version of this paper has been accepted for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Population Society (CPS 2017) which will be held in Ryerson University, Toronto, May 31-June 2, 2017. Click here to get the program of the conference.

 
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تازه‌های کتاب

Population Dynamics and Projection Methods: This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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