30 Years of Experience of the Two-Child Policy in Yicheng, China

Yu Qin, Fei Wang

More and more countries have been adopting population policies to increase birth rates, in order to deal with the growing challenges of aging (United Nations 2013). Following the recent trend, China, the most populous country in the world, ended its 35-year-long one-child policy and started to allow two children for each married couple from January 1, 2016. It is still too early to evaluate the new two-child policy directly. However, something may be learnt from what has happened in Yicheng in the past 30 years. Yicheng is a typical agricultural county in Shanxi province with a population that is over 80% rural (Figure 1). It first adopted the two-child policy in 1985, aiming to observe how fast birth rates would increase if fertility restrictions were ...

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
يكشنبه ، 10 دی 1396 ، 05:04

Muslim Minority of New Zealand in Global Context: Demographic Perspective

Yaghoob ForoutanYahoob Foroutan


This article focuses specifically on the population of Muslims in New Zealand, and highlights their demographic and socio-economic characteristics in a worldwide comparison. Globally, Islam is the fastest-growing religion and Muslims are the second largest religious group. In particular, the population of Muslim migrants in the multicultural and westerns societies is also remarkably growing fast. This also applies to the multicultural setting of New Zealand where have witnessed a substantially increasing growth of Muslim population during the recent decades. Holding a wide range of ethnic and religious groups from throughout the world as well as a variety of Muslims from different parts of the Islamic world, the multicultural field of this study serve as a unique human and cultural laboratory to approach properly the key research objectives of this analysis. The discussion is mainly based on the customized data of population census. This article specifically addresses the main demographic and socio-economic patterns and differentials associated with the population of Muslims in this multicultural context in a global comparison. Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs, 2017, 37 (4): 511-519.

مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 28 فروردين 1396 ، 08:14

Ethnic Differences in the Attitudes and Practice of Consanguineous Marriage among Kurds and Turks in Uromiyeh District, Iran

Hatam Hosseini, Amir ErfaniDr, Hatam Hosseini


Despite the spread of modern familial values and norms and the rapid pace of modernization in Iran, kinship marriages remain a common practice among some ethnic groups, including Turk and Kurd. This study is informed by modernization and development idealism theories to examine factors associated with the practice and attitude of Kurdish and Turkish women to consanguineous marriage, utilizing data from a representative sample of 768 ever-married women residing in the district of Uromiyeh in Iran. The results indicated that consanguineous marriage was more prevalent among Kurds rather than Turks, and Kurdish rather than Turkish women held more positive orientations to consanguineous. Multivariate results showed that being a Kurd than a Turk was strongly associated with the likelihood of practicing kinship marriage and having positive attitudes to consanguineous marriage, while the levels of modernization and development idealism showed no or weak association. The results suggest that ethnic belonging can reinforce consanguineous marriage regardless of being modernized or holding modern development ideals. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, Vol. XLV, No. 3, PP. 389-403. Click here to get the paper.

مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
سه شنبه ، 9 آبان 1396 ، 04:52

The End of High Fertility is Near

United Nations Population Division

In recent decades, developing countries around the world have been undergoing a demographic transition, characterized by increasing levels of life expectancy at birth and declining levels of lifetime fertility.  Many of these countries are now reaching levels of mortality and fertility that are similar to those seen in the more developed countries. The total fertility rate for the world as a whole fell from around 5 live births per woman in 1950-1955 to 2.5 births in 2010-2015. As a result of this global transition, an increasing share of the world’s population now lives in countries where total fertility has fallen below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 live births per woman over a lifetime; at this level of fertility, each generation of parents exactly replaces itself with an equivalent number of children who survive to adulthood, ensuring a long-term growth rate of zero1. Conversely, a relatively small proportion of the world’s population now lives in countries with high levels of fertility — conventionally defined as more than 5 live births per woman. Given the projected future course of fertility, it is expected that this proportion will continue to decrease. Thus, the end of high fertility is near and should become a reality within the next decade or so, according to the results of the 2017 Revision of the World Population Prospects2.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
پنجشنبه ، 11 خرداد 1396 ، 08:40

Age-Structural Transition in Iran: Short- and Long-Term Consequences of Drastic Fertility Swings During the Final Decades of the Twentieth Century

Amir H. Mehryar, Shirin AhmadniaAmir H. Mehryar

Immediately after the Revolution (1979) the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) adopted a pronatalist policy advocating early marriage and childbearing as basic Islamic values. The result was a tremendous rise in fertility rate and a drastic change in the age structure of the population. Although the baby boom period was rather short and the antinatalist policy adopted in 1989 has been surprisingly successful, the age-structural transition (AST) produced by the pronatalist policy has already affected various aspects of the Iranian society. The entry of the baby boomers into the school system (from 1984 on) led to a heavy burden on various levels of the educational system. Their gradual entry into the labour market (from around 1995) has contributed significantly to the current unemployment crisis. Their impact on the housing market is also already being felt. Their eventual exit from the labour market (in the early 2040s) looms as a major threat to Iran’s social security system. The aim of this paper is to review the process and dynamics of AST in Iran and to explore its medium- and long-term consequences for the social and economic development of the country. In Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris, 2006, PP. 319-358.

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روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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