Age-Structural Transition in Iran: Short- and Long-Term Consequences of Drastic Fertility Swings During the Final Decades of the Twentieth Century

Amir H. Mehryar, Shirin Ahmadnia

Abstract
Immediately after the Revolution (1979) the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) adopted a pronatalist policy advocating early marriage and childbearing as basic Islamic values. The result was a tremendous rise in fertility rate and a drastic change in the age structure of the population. Although the baby boom period was rather short and the antinatalist policy adopted in 1989 has been surprisingly successful, the age-structural transition (AST) produced by the pronatalist policy has already affected various aspects of the Iranian society. The entry of the baby boomers into the school system (from 1984 on) led to a heavy burden on various levels of the educational system. Their gradual entry into the labour market (from around 1995) has contributed significantly to the current unemployment crisis. Their impact on the housing market is also already being felt. Their eventual exit from the labour market (in the early 2040s) looms as a major threat to Iran’s social security system. The aim of this paper is to review the process and dynamics of AST in Iran and to explore its medium- and long-term consequences for the social and economic development of the country. In Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris, 2006, PP. 319-358.

Ethnic Differences in the Attitudes and Practice of Consanguineous Marriage among Kurds and Turks in Uromiyeh District, Iran

Hatam Hosseini, Amir Erfani

Abstract

Despite the spread of modern familial values and norms and the rapid pace of modernization in Iran, kinship marriages remain a common practice among some ethnic groups, including Turk and Kurd. This study is informed by modernization and development idealism theories to examine factors associated with the practice and attitude of Kurdish and Turkish women to consanguineous marriage, utilizing data from a representative sample of 768 ever-married women residing in the district of Uromiyeh in Iran. The results indicated that consanguineous marriage was more prevalent among Kurds rather than Turks, and Kurdish rather than Turkish women held more positive orientations to consanguineous. Multivariate results showed that being a Kurd than a Turk was strongly associated with the likelihood of practicing kinship marriage and having positive attitudes to consanguineous marriage, while the levels of modernization and development idealism showed no or weak association. The results suggest that ethnic belonging can reinforce consanguineous marriage regardless of being modernized or holding modern development ideals. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, Vol. XLV, No. 3, PP. 389-403. Click here to get the paper.