30 Years of Experience of the Two-Child Policy in Yicheng, China

Yu Qin, Fei Wang

More and more countries have been adopting population policies to increase birth rates, in order to deal with the growing challenges of aging (United Nations 2013). Following the recent trend, China, the most populous country in the world, ended its 35-year-long one-child policy and started to allow two children for each married couple from January 1, 2016. It is still too early to evaluate the new two-child policy directly. However, something may be learnt from what has happened in Yicheng in the past 30 years. Yicheng is a typical agricultural county in Shanxi province with a population that is over 80% rural (Figure 1). It first adopted the two-child policy in 1985, aiming to observe how fast birth rates would increase if fertility restrictions were ...

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

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Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 5 تیر 1396 ، 01:26

Prolonged Birth Intervals in Hamedan, Iran: Variations and Determinants

Dr. Amir ErfaniAmir Erfani; Marzieh Nojomi; Hatam Hosseini

Abstract

The enduring sub-replacement level of fertility in Iran is the result of changing timing of births. Using data from the 2015 Hamedan Survey of Fertility, conducted in a representative sample of 3000 married women aged 15–49, this study examined variations in median lengths of birth intervals employing cumulative survival functions, and investigated the determinants of birth interval lengths using regression hazard models. The results showed that the median first, second and third birth intervals, estimated at 28, 74 and 136 months respectively, doubled between 1995 and 2015. The multivariate analysis results indicated the strong impact of contraceptive use and higher education on lengthening birth intervals, with greater effects on the timing of second and third births. The relative risks of second and third births were higher among rural migrants, unemployed women and those with shorter periods of breast-feeding and the death of a preceding birth. Only timing of the third birth was influenced by son preference. The implications of the results for low fertility and maternal and child health in Iran are discussed. Journal of Biosocial Science (2017): 1-15, Doi: 1017/S0021932017000232. Click here to get the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
يكشنبه ، 4 تیر 1396 ، 04:15

Localization of Determinants of Fertility through Measurement Adaptations in Developing-Country Settings: The Case of Iran

Amir ErfaniDr. Amir Erfani

Abstract

Studies investigating fertility decline in developing countries often adopt measures of determinants of fertility behavior developed based on observations from developed countries, without adapting them to the realities of the study setting. As a result, their findings are usually invalid, anomalous or statistically non-significant. This commentary draws on the research article by Moeeni and colleagues, as an exemplary work which has not adapted measures of two key economic determinants of fertility behavior, namely gender inequality and opportunity costs of childbearing, to the realities of Iran’s economy. Measurement adaptations that can improve the study are discussed. International Journal of Health Policy and Management, 3(7): 413–415.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
سه شنبه ، 26 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 06:28

Low Fertility Intention in Tehran, Iran: The Role of Attitudes, Norms, and Perceived Behavioural Control

Dr. Amir ErfaniAmir Erfani

Abstract

Department of Sociology, Nipissing University, Ontario, Canada Summary. Persistent low fertility rates are an increasing concern for countries with low fertility like Iran. Informed by the Theory of Planned Behaviour, this study examined the immediate factors influencing fertility intentions, using data from the 2012 Tehran Survey of Fertility Intentions. The findings show that more than half of young married adults in Tehran intend to have no more children. The multivariate analysis results indicate that individuals who view childbearing as being detrimental to their personal life, feel less normative pressure to have a/another child, and believe their childbearing decision is not contingent on the presence of economic resources required for childbearing, are more likely to want no (more) children or to be unsure rather than to want a/another child. Attitudes and normative pressure are dominant factors influencing the intention to have a first child, while the intention to have a second child is mainly affected by attitudes and perceived constraints. The policy implications of the results are discussed. Journal of Biosocial Science (2017), 49, 292-308. Doi: 10.1017/S0021932016000109. Click here to get the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
پنجشنبه ، 14 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 13:15

The Compositional Effects of Education and Employment on Greek Male and Female Fertility Rates During 2000‒2014

Christos BagavosChristos Bagavos, Alexandra Tragaki

Abstract

As many of the advanced countries that were hit hard by the recent economic recession also have persistently low fertility rates, researchers are increasingly interested in examining how the education‒employment gradient shapes fertility outcomes. Our aim in this paper is to enrich the discussion about variation in crisis-driven fertility patterns by focusing on male fertility, and by comparing the fertility behavioral patterns and the compositional factors of male and female fertility under 'Great Recession' conditions. We estimate the education- and employment-specific fertility rates of men and women for the 2000‒2014 period in Greece. Using a mixed standardization and decomposition method, we estimate the influence of changes in educational levels and employment status on total male and female fertility, which we call the "compositional effect;" and of changes in fertility behavior, which we call the "fertility effect." During the recent economic recession, the decline in fertility has been far from uniform across genders, educational levels, and employment statuses. Moreover, it appears that the changes in male and female fertility rates have been driven by different underlying forces. We find that among men, negative shifts in employability were exclusively responsible for the decline in fertility rates; whereas among women, changes in the TFR were steadily conditioned by the pure fertility effect. Our findings suggest that the compositional effect on the period total fertility rate might be more important than fertility behavior per se, especially during time periods when economic variables clearly contribute to fertility outcomes. The topics tackled in the paper are potentially interesting and under-researched in particular in the context of the recent economic recession. Journal of Demographic Research (2017), 36/47: 1435-1452.

 
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تازه‌های کتاب

روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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