How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.”

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

ادامه‌ی مطلب

Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 15 خرداد 1396 ، 05:29

Preparing for Population Aging in Asia: Strengthening the Infrastructure for Science and Policy

James P. SmithJames P. Smith

Abstract

Throughout most of the developed and developing world, one of the most daunting issues deals with the challenges raised by population aging. Rapid increases in life expectancy, especially at older ages, alongside unprecedented declines in fertility will soon lead throughout North America, Europe, and Asia to never before seen rates of population aging. The “problem” of population aging is easy to state—to provide income and health security at older ages and to do so at affordable budgets. All rapidly aging countries face similar risks, but Asian countries have some advantages and disadvantages. The disadvantages are that compared to Europe and North America, Asian countries are now aging more rapidly at lower incomes with weak non-familial income and health security systems in place. The big advantage is that it is much easier to change public systems in Asia than in Europe and America where the vested interest around the status quo has proven to be a major impediment to any policy adjustment.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
سه شنبه ، 4 مهر 1396 ، 10:43

Division of Domestic Labour and Lowest-Low Fertility in South Korea

Erin Hye-Won KimErin Hye-Won Kim

Abstract

One explanation offered for very low fertility has been the gap between improvements in women’s socioeconomic status outside the home and gender inequality in the home. The related empirical evidence is lacking for East Asian countries, where women may face particular challenges combining career and family due to the unique regional context. This paper provides an up-to-date picture of Korean women’s fertility intentions, fertility behaviour, and the division of domestic labour with husbands, parents, parents-in-law, and formal childcare services. It also examines how the informal and formal help women receive affects their fertility behaviour. Using data from the 2008, 2010, and 2012 waves of the Korean Longitudinal Survey of Women and Families, this study describes fertility intentions, fertility behaviour, and the division of labour. Focusing on women with one child, I use logit regressions to estimate how various sources of help relate to the intended and unintended births of second children. Fertility intentions were a good predictor of fertility behaviour. Both fertility intentions and behaviour displayed the greatest variability among women with one child. Husbands did not contribute much to domestic work, and gender inequality grew with parity. Husbands’ support in the domestic sphere increased the likelihood of intended births. Formal help also had a positive impact when its costs were not high, but parental help had no significant impact. None of these sources of help was related to unintended births. Government policies that aim to address Korea’s low fertility would be wise to target women with one child. Empirical evidence from Korea supports the recent theoretical literature on the association of low fertility with gender inequity. Various sources of support that relieve women’s domestic labour burden and enhance their ability to reconcile work with family life may boost fertility rates in East Asia. Demographic Research, 2017, 37(24): 743-768. Click here to get the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
پنجشنبه ، 11 خرداد 1396 ، 08:40

Age-Structural Transition in Iran: Short- and Long-Term Consequences of Drastic Fertility Swings During the Final Decades of the Twentieth Century

Amir H. Mehryar, Shirin AhmadniaAmir H. Mehryar

Abstract
Immediately after the Revolution (1979) the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) adopted a pronatalist policy advocating early marriage and childbearing as basic Islamic values. The result was a tremendous rise in fertility rate and a drastic change in the age structure of the population. Although the baby boom period was rather short and the antinatalist policy adopted in 1989 has been surprisingly successful, the age-structural transition (AST) produced by the pronatalist policy has already affected various aspects of the Iranian society. The entry of the baby boomers into the school system (from 1984 on) led to a heavy burden on various levels of the educational system. Their gradual entry into the labour market (from around 1995) has contributed significantly to the current unemployment crisis. Their impact on the housing market is also already being felt. Their eventual exit from the labour market (in the early 2040s) looms as a major threat to Iran’s social security system. The aim of this paper is to review the process and dynamics of AST in Iran and to explore its medium- and long-term consequences for the social and economic development of the country. In Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris, 2006, PP. 319-358.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 8 خرداد 1396 ، 09:09

Age-Structural Transitions: Major Policy Implications for China

Yan HaoYan Hao

Abstract
China is the most populous country in the world. In less than 50 years since 1950, the Chinese population has experienced a process of demographic transition with fertility falling quickly from high to low levels. In between, sizeable bulges and troughs in age structure were left as a result of China’s turbulent course of social and economic development over recent decades. The government-sponsored birth control programmes are believed to have played a special role in pressing down fertility since the mid 1970s. Projections of the age-structural transition show that a “window of opportunity” for China as a whole will arrive in around 2010, when the share of working age population will reach the highest level of 71% and the total dependency ratio will drop to 42%. However, marked differences exist between provinces and between urban and rural areas. Before the dependency ratio starts to pick up again around 2015, China will still have had over 10 years’ time to make full use of this “demographic bonus”. It is a crucial period for China to reach its target of 2020 aiming to quadruple its per capita GDP over that of 2000, and to fulfill its commitment to the Millennium Development Goals. Major policy implications are discussed here relating to labour market and social security programs. In Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development, Edited by Ian Pool, Laura R. WONG and Éric Vilquin, Paris 2006, PP. 289-317.

 
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روش‌های تحلیل جمعیّت‌شناختی: این کتاب توسّط سه تن از جمعیّت‌شناسان نامی علم جمعیّت‌شناسی یعنی فرحت یوسف، جو. ام. مارتین و دیوید ا. سوانسون در چهارده فصل به رشته‌ی تحریر درآمده و در سال 2014 توسّط انتشارات اسپرینگر چاپ و منتشر شده است. دکتر حاتم حسینی و میلاد بگی کتاب را به زبان فارسی برگرداندند. ترجمه‌ی فارسی کتاب در 460 صفحه و شمارگان 1000 نسخه توسّط مرکز نشر دانشگاه بوعلی سینا در تابستان 1396 چاپ و منتشر شد. مطالب این کتاب به شیوه‌­ای سازمان یافته است که اجازه می‌دهد تا خوانندگان از یک سطح مقدّماتی به روش‎های پیشرفته‎تر تحلیل­‌های جمعیّت‎شناختی حرکت کنند. این رویکرد با در نظرگرفتن این نکته است که ممکن است کاربران ...

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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