How China is rolling out the red carpet for couples who have more than one child

Stuart Gietel-BastenStuart Gietel-Basten

A rather remarkable turnaround has occurred in China. For a country famous for having the most comprehensive sets of policies designed to limit births, it is now introducing new policies to support parents who have a second child. In November 2015, China announced it would abandon its one-child policy and switch to a national two-child policy. The change came into force on January 1, 2016, with the immediate rationale being to tackle China’s rapidly ageing (and projected declining) population. Some predicted a huge baby boom. Others – including me – suggested that the reforms were “too little, too late”, and that “simply allowing people to have more children does not mean they will.”

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As China ends the one-child policy, what is its legacy?

One Child PolicyStephanie Gordon

China has announced the end to its infamous one-child policy, the restrictive rule that has limited many families to one child, and some to two children for the past 37 years. The changes will allow all couples to have two children. China has a long history of controlling its population. Throughout the 1950s, family planning was encouraged under Mao Zedong to promote economic growth. But only in 1973 did it become a political priority, with the national wan, xi, shao–“late marriage, longer spacing, and fewer children” campaign encouraging two children per couple. In June 1978, a policy of one child per couple was rigorously pursued as the government feared that China would not be able to modernise and support a large population at the same time.

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باروری نسلی باید ملاک برنامه‌های جمعیّتی قرار گیرد نه باروری مقطعی

Dr. Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavaziدر گفت‌وگو با دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی

برخی هشدارهای اغراق‌آمیز در زمینه‌ی کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیّت تأسّف‌آور است و از این نشأت می‌گیرد که برخی افراد شناخت درستی از شاخص‌های جمعیّتی ندارند. دکتر محمّدجلال عبّاسی شوازی، استاد جمعیّت‌شناسی دانشگاه تهران و رئیس انجمن جمعیّت‌شناسی ایران، در یک گفتگوی تلویزیونی با بیان این مطلب گفت: دو نوع نگرش نسبت به وضعیّت باروری داریم: «نگرش مقطعی» و «نگرش نسلی». در شرایط فعلی و با توجّه به ساختار سنّی جمعیّت کشور، باروری مقطعی تحت تأثیر وضعیّت اقتصادی اجتماعی حال حاضر کشور قرار دارد. محاسبات انجام شده با روش‌های مختلف نشان داده که میزان باروری کشور در سال 1390 بین 1/8 تا 2/1 در نوسان بوده است. امّا باید توجّه داشت که ملاک برنامه‌ریزی‌ها باید باروری نسلی باشد؛ چرا که باروری مقطعی می‌تواند ...

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Demography
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 28 فروردين 1396 ، 08:14

Ethnic Differences in the Attitudes and Practice of Consanguineous Marriage among Kurds and Turks in Uromiyeh District, Iran

Hatam Hosseini, Amir ErfaniDr, Hatam Hosseini

Abstract

Despite the spread of modern familial values and norms and the rapid pace of modernization in Iran, kinship marriages remain a common practice among some ethnic groups, including Turk and Kurd. This study is informed by modernization and development idealism theories to examine factors associated with the practice and attitude of Kurdish and Turkish women to consanguineous marriage, utilizing data from a representative sample of 768 ever-married women residing in the district of Uromiyeh in Iran. The results indicated that consanguineous marriage was more prevalent among Kurds rather than Turks, and Kurdish rather than Turkish women held more positive orientations to consanguineous. Multivariate results showed that being a Kurd than a Turk was strongly associated with the likelihood of practicing kinship marriage and having positive attitudes to consanguineous marriage, while the levels of modernization and development idealism showed no or weak association. The results suggest that ethnic belonging can reinforce consanguineous marriage regardless of being modernized or holding modern development ideals. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, Vol. XLV, No. 3, PP. 389-403. Click here to get the paper.

 
مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
چهارشنبه ، 6 ارديبهشت 1396 ، 07:13

Announcement of the 4th Asian Population Association Conference

4th APA ConferenceShanghai, China, 11 July to 14 July 2018

The Asian Demographic Research Institute will host the 4th Asian Population Association (APA) in Shanghai, China, at Shanghai University from 11 July to 14 July 2018. The Asian Population Association Conference has strongly become a major international event drawing over 1,600 participants from over 50 countries around the globe. The Conference is held every three years, providing opportunities for experts and students to share and discuss their scientific study of population issues. The key topics of interest shared by our members and participants include but not limited to the followings; Fertility, Reproductive Health, Mortality, Child Health, Migration, Refugees, Population Ageing, Labour force and Employment, Population and Education, Poverty, Population and Development, Gender Issues and Techniques of Demographic Analysis. The language of the 2018 Conference will be English. English to Chinese translation service will be offered at the opening sessions and keynote speakers. The Call for papers has been added to APA Website and disseminated through many institutes around the globe. The online submission system will be activated on 1 June 2017 and the submission deadline is 30 September 2017.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
دوشنبه ، 15 خرداد 1396 ، 05:29

Preparing for Population Aging in Asia: Strengthening the Infrastructure for Science and Policy

James P. SmithJames P. Smith

Abstract

Throughout most of the developed and developing world, one of the most daunting issues deals with the challenges raised by population aging. Rapid increases in life expectancy, especially at older ages, alongside unprecedented declines in fertility will soon lead throughout North America, Europe, and Asia to never before seen rates of population aging. The “problem” of population aging is easy to state—to provide income and health security at older ages and to do so at affordable budgets. All rapidly aging countries face similar risks, but Asian countries have some advantages and disadvantages. The disadvantages are that compared to Europe and North America, Asian countries are now aging more rapidly at lower incomes with weak non-familial income and health security systems in place. The big advantage is that it is much easier to change public systems in Asia than in Europe and America where the vested interest around the status quo has proven to be a major impediment to any policy adjustment.

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مشاهده در قالب پی دی اف چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
شنبه ، 14 مرداد 1396 ، 12:44

Are Women and Men Well Informed about Fertility? Childbearing Intentions, Fertility Knowledge and Information-gathering Sources in Portugal

Teresa Almeida-Santos, Cláudia Melo, Ana Macedo, and Mariana Moura-Ramos

Abstract

The postponement of parenthood may increase the number of couples experiencing infertility and prolonged time to pregnancy. Previous research has revealed that childless people are not well informed regarding fertility, which may threat their childbearing intentions. This study aimed to examine fertility knowledge and childbearing intentions held by Portuguese people and their use and perceived usefulness of information sources on fertility. Participants were recruited using a random-route domiciliary approach. A total of 2404 individuals aged 18–45 were asked to complete a structured questionnaire evaluating socio-demographic characteristics, childbearing intentions, fertility knowledge and information-gathering sources regarding fertility. In total, 95.5% of the participants indicated the desire to have children in the future, and 61.7% reported that having children would contribute to life satisfaction. Most of the participants expressed the desire to have two children in the future. The discrepancy between the numbers of planned and desired children was higher in men, in participants with lower education levels, in professionally active participants and in the unemployed participants. Relationship stability seemed to be more important in influencing childbearing decisions than financial stability or family support. Knowledge regarding fertility was poor. Women, the participants who were older than 25, the participants with longer education and the participants with higher income exhibited the greatest levels of knowledge of fertility, although this knowledge was only slightly enhanced in these subgroups. Also, the participants overestimated both the chances of spontaneous pregnancy and the success rates of assisted reproduction techniques. Finally, the results revealed that websites were the main information sources used by the participants and only 18.0% of the participants had previously discussed fertility issues with their doctors. Although Portuguese men and women reported the desire to have children in the future, their knowledge regarding fertility and infertility risk was poor. In addition, participants used more general sources of information, such as website, but not specialized sources, such as their doctors. There is a real need to work with general practitioners to empower them to provide adequate fertility information to every childless patient. Reproductive Health (2017), 14:91, DOI 10.1186/s12978-017-0352-z. Click here to get the paper.

 
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Population Dynamics and Projection Methods: This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

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نرم‌افزارهای جمعیّتی

MORTPAK for Windows (Version 4.3): The MORTPAK software packages for demographic measurement have had widespread use throughout research institutions in developing and developed countries since their introduction in 1988. Version 4.0 of MORTPAK included 17. Version 4.3 of MORTPAK enhanced many of the original applications and added 3 more to bring the total to 20 applications. The package incorporates techniques that take advantage of the United Nations model life tables and generalized stable population equations. The package has been constructed with worksheet-style, full screen data entry which takes advantage of the interactive ...

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